Senator Deb Fischer, a Nebraska Republican, has found herself in an unexpectedly tight race for reelection this year against independent candidate Dan Osborn, according to a new poll.
The latest survey conducted between August 23 to 27 by SurveyUSA in partnership with Split Ticket shows the incumbent GOP senator leading Osborn by a mere single point, 39 to 38 percent. The poll, which was published on Saturday, surveyed 1,293 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
This narrow margin comes as former President Donald Trump won the state by 19 percentage points in the 2020 election when he faced off against President Joe Biden. The poll results suggest that Nebraska, traditionally considered a Republican stronghold, may be more competitive than previously thought in the 2024 U.S. Senate race in November.
Newsweek contacted Fischer and Osborn’s press contact as well as Trump’s campaign via email on Sunday for comment.
The SurveyUSA poll is not an outlier. A YouGov poll conducted from July 31 to August 12 showed Fischer with a similarly slim 2-point lead (43 to 41 percent). Even more surprising, a November 2023 poll by Change Research had Osborn leading by 2 points (40 to 38 percent). However, a Torchlight Strategies poll from July showed Fischer with a more comfortable 26-point lead (50 to 24 percent)—highlighting the volatility of the race.
Osborn, a former U.S. Navy veteran and labor union leader, has positioned himself as a centrist alternative to Fischer. His campaign strategy appears to be paying off, as he has managed to close the gap with the incumbent senator despite having lower name recognition. The SurveyUSA poll found that 42 percent of voters haven’t heard anything about Osborn, indicating potential for further movement in the race.
The Nebraska Democratic Party‘s decision not to field a candidate and instead tacitly support Osborn seems to be a calculated move that may be yielding dividends. This strategy mirrors the 2022 Utah Senate race where independent candidate Evan McMullin managed to keep the race surprisingly close against incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee.
Osborn’s approach of distancing himself from both major parties appears to be resonating with voters across the political spectrum. The polls show him performing well not only in the more educated and urban 2nd Congressional District, but also overperforming in the exurban 1st District and rural 3rd District relative to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
The tight race in Nebraska could have significant implications for control of the Senate. With several competitive seats up for grabs this year, both parties are fighting for every possible advantage. A potential flip in Nebraska, which few considered possible at the outset of the Osborn campaign, could tip the balance of power in the upper chamber.
Split-ticket voting has become increasingly rare in recent years. As reported by Axios, in the 2020 election, only one Republican senator, Susan Collins of Maine, won in a state that Trump lost. This trend suggests that Fischer may still have an advantage in a state that the former president won handily in 2020.
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