Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. I’m Lili Pike, a staff writer covering China. I’m standing in for James Palmer while he’s away this week.
The highlights this week: China seeks to maintain momentum with the United States as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visits Beijing, Canada announces electric vehicle tariffs on China to match those of the United States, and China suspends permits for new steel plants—spelling good news for the climate.
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What Does China Want From Jake Sullivan?
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan kicked off a three-day visit to Beijing on Tuesday. The trip to the Chinese capital follows those of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and other cabinet members since the United States and China rebooted diplomacy in November 2022.
Sullivan has met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi four other times around the world, but perhaps he was convinced to make the journey to China after seeing the culinary reception his colleagues received. As for what is on the menu for his trip, it’s rather limited: A senior White House official told reporters last Friday that the goal of the visit was “clearing up misperceptions and avoiding this competition from veering into conflict.”
At the same time, U.S. officials are aiming to notch some additional progress in specific areas of cooperation before the end of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term. In the last few weeks, Chinese officials visited Washington to discuss fentanyl, and U.S. Treasury Department officials traveled to Shanghai. John Podesta, Biden’s international climate envoy, is soon expected to make a trip to China as well.
Republicans have criticized the Biden administration’s China talks as a wasted effort—a diplomatic performance without substance. However, the engagement has borne some fruit for the United States: China has committed to setting more comprehensive climate goals and tackling potent non-carbon dioxide emissions, cracked down on three fentanyl precursors, and restored military-to-military communication.
Less clear is what Beijing has gained from the diplomacy. In 2022, China was motivated to reengage with the United States at least in part with the hope of buoying its ailing economy. However, the meetings with Washington haven’t exactly provided economic lifelines. The Biden administration has maintained tariffs put in place under former U.S. President Donald Trump and imposed new restrictions on technology exports to China.
The meetings have nonetheless provided increased stability to the U.S.-China relationship, which Beijing values, experts said. “I don’t think they see it as a failure because no matter what it’s still better than the Trump years, right? There was no free fall,” said Yun Sun, the China director at the Stimson Center, pointing to renewed military-to-military communication as one example of improved stability.
With Sullivan’s visit and a possible meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year on the sidelines of the G-20 or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, will China try to secure some diplomatic gains before facing a potential second Trump term?
In a media briefing ahead of the trip, a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official said Beijing would continue to build off the “substantive and constructive” meetings with Sullivan while pressing Washington on areas of concern, including the “unreasonable measures” the Biden administration has taken against China economically. “China demands that the United States stop politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues,” the ministry readout said.
But progress is expected to be limited. “At this point, the Chinese see the Biden administration as holding the fort before the election,” Sun said. “So I think for the Chinese, there is less enthusiasm to negotiate any major deal with the Biden administration unless they are offered something really handsome in return.”
At a minimum, China aims to maintain momentum in the bilateral relationship as political tides shift in the United States, said Da Wei, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University. That Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is polling stronger than Biden had been “makes engaging with the Biden administration become more valuable … because a future Harris administration, we believe, will have much stronger continuity than changes,” he said.
Although it’s unclear what role if any Sullivan would play in a potential Harris administration, China is likely also interested in continuing to invest in the relationship with him personally.
“From my understanding, the prevailing view among Chinese elites is that, although President Biden may be nearing the end of his political career, Sullivan’s policy and political influence is expected to endure for quite some time,” said Jing Qian, the managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
What We’re Following
Trade war with China expands. On Monday, Canada announced that it would match the United States with new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports. Gaining such support will help the United States block a potential loophole for Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. market through the countries’ free trade agreement as U.S. automakers develop their own EV models.
Canada’s announcement comes as the European Union finalizes its own lower tariffs on Chinese EVs. Tariffs on Chinese goods are catching on beyond close U.S. allies, from Turkey to Indonesia. What’s driving the rush to put up trade walls? In recent years, China has leaned heavily on state-backed manufacturing to compensate for its property market tumble.
One striking statistic: “Loans to industry, including manufacturing firms, have increased 63% since the end of 2021, while Chinese banks have pulled back sharply on lending to real-estate developers,” the Wall Street Journal recently reported.
This manufacturing boom has created massive overcapacity, leading to a rise in exports and global backlash. Beijing is fighting back against the wave of tariffs with investigations into possible countertariffs. However, the global response may eventually put pressure on Beijing to redouble efforts to boost consumption to drive economic growth in addition to manufacturing.
Good climate news. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced last week that it would suspend allocation of permits for new steel plants. Steel accounts for 15 percent of China’s carbon emissions, so greening the industry is critical to the country’s climate progress. China had already stopped issuing permits for coal-based steelmaking this year.
According to recent policy documents, China could cut its steel sector emissions by the equivalent of the EU’s total steel emissions by 2025, the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) wrote.
On top of that, Chinese provinces are shifting away from coal power plants after a recent construction spree. CREA found that new coal plant approvals have dropped by more than 80 percent since last year, likely displaced by China’s renewable energy rollout. Some experts predict that China’s emissions could peak this year if these trends continue.
Pop Quiz
1. Which country’s airspace did a Chinese military aircraft enter for the first time this week?
2. What is the latest Chinese internet buzzword, describing young people without prospects? (Hint: It is related to the real estate crisis.)
3. Which famous Taiwanese restaurant chain just announced that it would close more than a dozen locations in China after opening a branch in New York City?
Scroll down for the answers.
FP’s Most Read This Week
A Bit of Culture
The Southern Song poet and statesman Lu You (1125-1210) never managed much success in official life. He went from minor posting to minor posting, advocating the politically unpopular and militarily unfeasible position that what was left of the Song dynasty should expel the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty from the north.
Lu’s concern for the fate of the nation is heavily represented in his surviving works, but his poems on the details of everyday life—including his cats—have proved more enduring.—Brendan O’Kane, translator
“I Got a Cat in a Nearby Village and Called Him Snowball and Wrote This Poem About Him for Fun”By Lu You
Like a tiger if it could climb a tree,Or a colt that wouldn’t pull a cart,So dead set on his mousingThat he has no time for fish.
On catnip and occasion he loses himself,and every night he keeps my blankets warm—He must’ve been my servant in some past life,Accompanying me in age and rustication.
“For Pinknose”By Lu You
My cat spends her nights ripping mice apart.Bristling, spitting blood, she guards the grain.By day she’s every inch the palace lady—Full of fish and sleeping on silk pillows.
And the Answers Are…
1. Japan
A Chinese surveillance plane briefly entered Japanese airspace over the uninhabited Danjo Islands in the country’s southwest on Monday, sparking condemnation. The Danjo Islands sit closer to Japan’s main islands than the Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands and where it has challenged Japan in a territorial dispute.
2. 烂尾娃, or rotten-tailed kids
The term refers to so-called rotten-tailed buildings, the millions of Chinese homes that have been abandoned after investment and partial construction due to the property market crisis. In this case, graduates have received years of education in the pressure cooker of Chinese society only to now face an unforgiving job market.
3. Din Tai Fung
Apparently, China’s economic slowdown is hitting the high-end dumpling market: The restaurant is closing 14 branches in China. The FP team assures Din Tai Fung that there is plenty of appetite for its dumplings in Washington.
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