Kamala Harris’ Democratic National Convention may be a simple coronation of a candidate primary voters didn’t choose, but it’s playing well in the toss-up state of North Carolina where 16 electoral votes are up for grabs.
That’s the message from a fresh Tar Heel State Survey USA poll from High Point University conducted between Aug. 19 and 21, the first three days of the event in Chicago.
With the bulk of the Chicago convention in the books, Harris holds what pollsters call a “whisker-thin” lead. But it’s enough to make this survey newsy, as it’s a potential harbinger of the first Democratic win of the state since Barack Obama in 2008, which itself was the first since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign.
Overall, Harris leads with registered voters, 46% to 45%, with 8% undecided. Among likely voters, the veep’s ahead 48% to 46%, with Donald Trump’s key in this state per this poll being bringing out historically likely voters who are not enthusiastic about this election’s choices.
The Republican leads 50% to 40% with those LVs who say they will “probably” vote and 39% to 32% with those LVs who say they have a 50% chance of voting in this high-profile race.
Beyond the topline, a key determining factor for those North Carolina voters supporting Harris is whether they were watching the convention itself.
Those who watched almost none of it are behind Trump, 62% to 26% for Harris. But those who watched “a little” of the event support Harris, 48% to 44%.
Those who watched “a lot” of the Chicago spectacle are very likely to back the Democratic nominee, with 73% of those saying they back her and just 22% of those DNC frequent flyers claiming they back Trump.
Beyond the correlation between convention viewing and backing the VP’s run for a promotion, the poll presents other insights, including some that should hearten Trump. Among those: the suggestion black men are more than twice as likely to back Trump as black women are.
Trump’s showing among African-American males (19%) isn’t amazing, to be sure, but it’s close to the 25% to 30% range the former president’s emissaries to that community eye as the best-case scenario. While 74% of black men say they back the vice president, this number suggests identity politics isn’t the primary driver for a sizable fraction of these North Carolina.
Black women back Harris 82% to 9%.
In yet another finding worth watching going forward, the poll shows Donald Trump firmly in command of the Latino cohort: 61% of Hispanic voters say they back Trump, with just 36% backing the vice president.
Trump’s +25 with this group exceeds even his overall favorability number of +19 with white voters, of whom 55% back him.
And the youngest voters surveyed here say they’re most likely to back Trump: 53% of those voters under the age of 35 support Trump, giving him a 15-point lead over Harris in this cohort.
The bad news? He doesn’t lead her with any other group.
Harris is up 48% to 43% with voters between 35 and 49 years of age. She leads 46% to 44% with those between 50 and 64. And among senior citizens, she leads 51% to 41%.
There is a divide, meanwhile, between voters who embrace the concept of matrimony and those who don’t.
Harris leads with single voters, taking 54% to 36% for Trump. But the former president leads with engaged voters (51% to 40%), married voters (49% to 41%) and widowed voters (61% to 35%).
In more potentially troublesome news for Trump, Harris is leading with moderates, 51% to 35%, and making inroads with people who characterize themselves as right of center.
Among those who say they are “very conservative,” Harris gets 21% support, with 3% undecided between the two. And among those who are “somewhat conservative,” Harris gets 23% support, with 1% backing another candidate and 5% undecided.
Trump is over 70% in both scenarios, but losing right-wing votes to the “dangerously liberal” Democratic candidate in a battleground state likely wasn’t in his campaign’s expectations headed into Labor Day.
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