There are a couple of days left of the Democratic National Convention.
Its result is preordained, the narrative is scripted, and the enthusiasm is performative.
While it’s impossible to actually knock a political convention from being the lead story in most news publications, former President Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy have a unique opportunity to do so Friday, shifting the spotlight from Chicago to an unorthodox political alliance that may give Trump back some of the momentum he had before Vice President Kamala Harris took the top spot on the 2024 ticket.
Kennedy running mate Nicole Shanahan raised the prospect of an alliance between the GOP nominee and the independent candidate.
“There’s two options that we’re looking at, and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and [Tim] Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump,” she said on the Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu podcast.
Once a third-party campaign starts floating these kinds of scenarios, the game is about over.
Kennedy recently made news for a conversation with Trump that included talk of a role in a future Republican administration if he endorsed the GOP nominee, followed by a failed attempt to talk to Harris about a job should she be elected.
So the trial balloon shouldn’t be surprising, especially since Kennedy has long since lost much of his initial voter interest in surveys.
But polls also give us a positive. Even a diminished Kennedy, rendered grotesque by stories of dropping off bear corpses in Central Park and eating remarkably canine-looking goats, is a valuable asset given he still has appeal in the handful of battleground states that will decide who wins in November.
If Kennedy is serious about being an boon to Trump and running-mate J.D. Vance, it would be political malpractice not to allow him to be part of the package.
This is despite some polling, such as a Cygnal survey of Pennsylvania, saying he as a spoiler candidate helps Trump win but voters go to Harris if he leaves the race.
After all, trends are showing those voters are going somewhere anyway, and it may as well happen now, when more battleground state polls than not show Kennedy support larger than the gap between Trump and Harris.
Other national polling shows Kennedy is most popular among Republicans at this point. An Economist/YouGov Poll conducted August 17 to 20 finds him above 50% with the GOP, another reason this makes sense.
One caveat: It’s not as if the Kennedy side isn’t seeking assurances if they fall in line, though. As Shanahan went on to say: “Do we trust Trump and his personal sincerity to really do the right thing for our country, end chronic disease, balance the budget, end these forever wars? Is he somebody that’s going to continue to invite people like Bobby and [me] into the conversation? Or is he going to fall victim again to the things he fell victim to in his first administration?”
Kennedy has said he will “talk with leaders of any political party to further the goals I have served for 40 years in my career and in this campaign,” such as “reversing the chronic disease epidemic, ending the war machine, cleaning corporate influence out of government and toxic pollution out of the environment, protecting freedom of speech and ending politicization of enforcement agencies.”
Is that a place Donald Trump’s Republican Party really wants to go? Alternatively, is Kennedy willing to take victories in a couple of areas and concede on the rest?
The question of whether the juice is worth the squeeze should be central to both sides’ thinking. But in terms of narrative, it’s a winner.
This season has been a breakneck campaign, and Team Trump has looked low energy in contrast with the pop culture push of the Harris spectacle. A Kennedy pick can reset the narrative and jump start the electorate. Especially in the battleground states.
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