New Caledonia’s push for independence from France risks cementing China’s strategic influence in the South Pacific region, according to a new paper from an Australian think tank.
The French territory was embroiled in months-long unrest earlier this year after France sought in vain to introduce an electoral reform. The proposed changes were criticized as an attempt to derail the territory’s independence movement; French President Emmanuel Macron in May flew all the way to the archipelago, a trip of 25 hours, to calm the situation and regain control.
New Caledonia voted no to independence in 2018, 2020 and 2021 in three referenda agreed between Paris and Noumea, but local resistance to French rule remained. The pro-independence movement denounced France’s “colonial tactics” after several activists were transferred during the latest unrest to mainland France for trial.
According to the new paper — “When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia,” issued by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute — if France were to lose the territory, it would be a significant blow to the West’s presence in the South Pacific, with Beijing set to benefit.
New Caledonia “is of particular interest” to China because it’s a “strategically important territory for France, Australia, New Zealand and the U.S.,” said Anne-Marie Brady, a professor at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand who authored the paper.
“New Caledonia’s agreed transition to greater autonomy must include discussions of how a sovereign independent or semi-autonomous New Caledonia/Kanaky[the name for the island used by the pro-independence movement] would defend itself against external threats, as well as other security risks,” she argued. “France and New Caledonia must find a way to manage the risks, as well as the opportunities, of engaging with China.”
For now, the French military presence in New Caledonia, together with that in French Polynesia, is a defining feature of France’s footprint in the Indo-Pacific. China, on the other hand, has been eyeing a bigger role in the South Pacific region, prompting the U.S. to react and step up its diplomatic outreach.
“French military assets are one of the factors standing in the way of China changing the power balance in the Indo-Pacific, and in the South Pacific more specifically,” Brady writes. “If France were to lose any of its Pacific territories, and access to the vast maritime area they provide, its global influence and status would decline significantly. That situation would suit the interests of China and Russia.”
The paper highlighted Beijing’s slow progress in influencing New Caledonian society, thanks in part to France.
The most prominent example, according to Brady’s research, was a decision by Paris to veto a Chinese takeover bid for a New Caledonian nickel mine in 2019. Nickel, a critical mineral for electric car batteries, makes up the bulk of the island territory’s exports.
However, “despite France’s efforts to restrict [Chinese] investment in New Caledonian nickel mining, China has achieved its goal of increased access to New Caledonian nickel … [and] greatly expanded its involvement in the New Caledonian nickel economy,” Brady notes. By 2022, 62.3 percent of all New Caledonian exports, the majority of which were minerals, went to China.
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