Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. I’m Lili Pike, a staff writer covering China. I’m standing in for James while he’s away this week and next.
The highlights this week: A fresh clash between the Philippines and China shows the limits of diplomacy in the South China Sea, Republican lawmakers launch a probe into presumptive Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz’s ties to China, and China’s youth unemployment rate rises as a new class of university graduates enters the job market.
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Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Early Monday, China and the Philippines engaged in another confrontation in a summer of high tensions, near-misses, and collisions in the South China Sea. The incident occurred around a new flash point: the disputed Sabina Shoal, a 14-mile stretch of uninhabited low-lying reefs.
The shoal falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, but China claims it as its own—along with the rest of the Spratly Islands. The Philippines has been monitoring the area since discovering signs of possible Chinese land reclamation there in May. Experts say that China has sought to prevent the Philippines from establishing a permanent military presence on Sabina, like Manila has on the nearby Second Thomas Shoal.
Shortly after 3 a.m. local time on Monday, the Chinese Coast Guard said that two Philippine Coast Guard boats “illegally intruded” into the waters near the shoal and that one of the Philippine vessels then “deliberately collided” with a Chinese vessel. Video footage released by the Chinese Coast Guard on Weibo appears to show a Chinese boat driving a Philippine boat away from the atoll.
According to the Philippines’ account, two of its coast guard vessels were heading to other islands when they encountered “dangerous and illegal maneuvers” from the Chinese ships, leading to damage to both of the Philippine boats. Pictures from the Philippine Coast Guard show one of their vessels with a three-foot puncture wound in the hull.
This clash is the latest escalatory incident in the long-standing maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. In June, Chinese Coast Guard boats rammed rubber boats—with sailors slashing at them with knives—near the Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine military outpost, causing one Filipino crew member to lose a thumb.
The confrontation took to the skies earlier this month, when Chinese air force planes dropped flares in front of a Philippine Air Force plane over Scarborough Shoal.
The situation appeared to reach a breaking point last month, when both countries came to an agreement regarding the Philippines’ resupply missions to its outpost on Second Thomas Shoal. The deal led to a smooth resupply mission, but its effects were clearly limited. The text of the agreement is not public, but even it has caused disagreement, with both sides defining it differently.
The provisional arrangement only applies to Second Thomas Shoal, and it’s “not going to deter or restrain China in other places,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Anybody who thought it was going to lead to a larger de-escalation of tensions was engaged in wishful thinking.”
The South China Sea remains one of the major potential flash points for conflict between China and the United States and its Indo-Pacific partners. Washington is Manila’s treaty ally, so it is bound to defend the country in the event of a war. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have both reaffirmed an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines in recent years, and the United States has stepped up its military relationship with the country significantly.
So far, the Philippines has not called for more outright support from the United States along the contested reefs in the South China Sea. Experts say the country wants to handle its own affairs to avoid perceptions of being a pawn in the great-power rivalry or of provoking conflict with China. But Beijing is likely to continue testing Manila’s red lines to play to its own domestic audience and to flex its strength to the other countries in the region.
“[China] wants to push the Philippines, see how far they go, and see if they can convince the Philippines that challenging China has negative consequences,” said Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “If China can keep the United States out, it stands a better chance of having control over the vast majority of the South China Sea, and I think that’s exactly what Beijing is trying to achieve.”
When it comes to Sabina Shoal, Poling said that both sides might be able to forge another limited agreement, but the broader confrontation is entrenched. “At the end of the day, there’s no grounds for Beijing and Manila to come up with a sustainable way to jointly manage the whole of the disputed area, so it’s just putting out fires,” Poling said.
“That’s going to be true, I mean, probably as long as [Chinese President] Xi Jinping is in power, but at the very least as long as China continues to pursue a maximalist interpretation of its historic rights claim.”
What We’re Following
Republicans probe Walz’s China ties. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the presumptive Democratic vice presidential nominee, has a long history visiting China that has already drawn criticism from ardent hawks. Last Friday, Republicans launched an investigation through the House Oversight Committee into Walz’s China ties.
Rep. James Comer, who is leading the probe, said that U.S. voters should be concerned with Walz’s “cozy relationship with China,” in a letter to the FBI director. The letter requested documents “regarding any Chinese entity or individual with whom Mr. Walz may have engaged or partnered” from the FBI by the end of the month.
Walz worked as a teacher in Guangdong, China, for a year, and later brought his American students to the country. In total, he has visited China more than 30 times. Walz has spoken warmly about his experiences in China, but he has also been openly critical of the Chinese government, dating to interviews with local newspapers in the 1990s, as Paul Musgrave wrote in FP.
As a U.S. representative, he was outspoken about China’s human rights abuses. In an era where nuanced views on China are not exactly celebrated by Washington, Walz is an easy target. So far, it appears that the Oversight Committee hasn’t turned up anything of note—but expect Walz’s China files to be thoroughly combed heading into the election on Nov. 5.
Graduates face tough job-hunting season. Nearly 12 million university graduates have flooded China’s saturated job market, sending China’s youth unemployment figures climbing again in what has become an annual cycle. The jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit 17.1 percent in July, a new high since the National Bureau of Statistics changed its methodology.
Last year, the agency stopped publishing youth unemployment statistics amid soaring jobless numbers; the reports only returned in January, when the methodology changed to exclude currently enrolled students.
Despite recent government measures to boost consumption, the Chinese economy remains sluggish, with the property sector continuing to be the biggest drag. That has hurt graduates’ job prospects and salaries. Facing this challenging job market, a record number of young people in China have opted for a less glamorous path as civil servants to secure low but stable wages.
Pop Quiz
1. Which year did Walz first travel to China?
2. What critical mineral did Beijing place new restrictions on last week? Hint: It’s used to make solar panels.
3. Which leader visited Beijing this week and signed a deal involving crocodiles?
Scroll down for the answers.
FP’s Most Read This Week
A Bit of Culture
Sun Wukong, or the Monkey King, is a beloved character immortalized in the 16th-century novel Journey to the West, attributed to Wu Cheng’en (also known as Son Goku). The classic has sparked dozens of spinoffs, including the video game Black Myth: Wukong, which was released today.
Gamers granted early access were reportedly given a list of subjects to avoid while livestreaming, including “feminist propaganda” and other forms of “negative discourse.” Below is an excerpt from the original novel, in which Sun Wukong and his three fellow pilgrims arrive in the Land of Women.—Brendan O’Kane
Excerpt from Journey to the WestBy Wu Cheng’en
The streets were lined with tidy rows of houses, with rice shops and salt stores, taverns and teahouses. … After several twists and turns, the pilgrims came upon an official—also a woman—who stood in the middle of the road, blocking their way forward. “Visitors from afar are forbidden to enter the city walls without permission,” she called. “Please register at the guesthouse. I will present your names to the throne so that you can be authorized to proceed.”
[Upon receiving word of the travelers], the queen turned to her officials. “Last night, We dreamed of a golden screen that shone with every color, and of a jade mirror reflecting luminous rays. These must have been omens of today’s happy events. … Our own land has never known a man, not under all the queens who reigned since primal chaos first divided.”
“Now the royal brother of the Tang emperor has arrived—a gift, surely, from Heaven itself. We shall use all the wealth of Our land to entice this royal brother to reign as king, with Ourselves as queen, in a royal union whose issue will rule Our kingdom in perpetuity. The dream must have been an omen of this good fortune.”
The woman-officials all bowed in joyful assent, but the official from the guesthouse approached the throne again. “Your majesty’s proposal to pass the throne down for ten thousand future generations is an excellent one,” she began. “But the royal brother’s three disciples are savage, vicious types—and they aren’t much to look at either.”
“What about the royal brother?” asked the queen.
“The royal brother is a fine figure of a man—handsome and imposing … but those three disciples of his are monstrous. Downright demonic, in fact.”
“In that case,” the queen said, “let’s just give the disciples some supplies, hand them back their traveling papers, and send them on their way to India. We’ll hang onto the royal brother.”
And the Answers Are…
1. 1989.
Walz went to teach in China shortly after the Tiananmen Square massacre. He said some people questioned the choice to go to China, but he felt it was an important opportunity to be there at a critical moment in history.
2. Antimony.
The mineral is used in weapons, batteries, solar panels, and other products. China supplies 63 percent of the United States’ antimony. Read more in FP about Beijing’s moves to leverage its control of critical minerals for geopolitical ends.
3. Vietnamese President To Lam.
To Lam became the general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party on Aug. 3. China and Vietnam signed 14 new deals, including agreements on crocodile and durian exports, as well as rail connections.
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