Donald Trump’s support among white working-class voters has “shrunk significantly” since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, said CNN data expert Harry Enten.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between August 5 and 9, found that in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, more white non-college-educated voters, a group that typically favors Republicans, are backing Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to the poll, Trump’s lead among the demographic has been slashed by 13 points since May, when Biden was still the presumptive candidate for the Democratic Party. In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between April 28 and May 9, Trump was 26 points ahead of Biden among white non-college-educated voters when third-party candidates were included—with 52 percent to his opponent’s 26 percent.
Trump is now only 13 points ahead among white non-college-educated voters, with 53 percent to Harris’ 40 percent when third-party candidates are included. The former president is also 13 points ahead of Harris in a head-to-head matchup. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“Donald Trump still leads, but look at that margin. It has shrunk significantly … nearly been sliced by half,” Enten said on CNN.
“Those are the types of numbers that Kamala Harris needs to put up in order to win,” Enten continued. He said Biden did not want to drop out of the race because he was worried that Harris could not break in with white non-college-educated voters, “but it turns out she absolutely can.”
Newsweek has contacted the Trump campaign for comment via email.
The new poll, which surveyed 1,973 likely voters, also showed that more white non-college-educated voters trusted the Democratic candidate on the economy than did previously, with 38 percent of the demographic saying Harris would do a better job than Trump on the economy.
In May, 26 percent said Biden would do a better job. Trump fared better in both polls, though he lost 9 points. In the May poll, 69 percent of white non-college-educated voters said the Republican would do a better job on the economy. In August, 60 percent said he would.
White non-college-educated voters have historically voted Republican and were critical to Trump’s victory in 2016, when he won the group by 64 percent to Hillary Clinton‘s 28 percent.
However, in 2020, white non-college-educated voters began to shift toward the Democrats, with 33 percent voting for Biden, while 65 percent voted for Trump, the Pew Research Center found.
While white working-class voters still lean Republican, experts have said Harris’ vice presidential nominee, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will help her appeal to white working-class rural voters, particularly in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Earlier this month, reporter Noah Bierman wrote in the Los Angeles Times that Walz, a former teacher and football coach who served in the National Guard, “is seen as a bridge to white working-class voters who have abandoned the party for Trump.”
The post Donald Trump’s Support Among White Working Class Has ‘Shrunk Significantly’ appeared first on Newsweek.
