John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book is “In Search of Berlin,” published by Atlantic.
Britain has gone sensible; France has gone chaotic. But both have staved off the far right — for the moment.And now that the parliaments of both countries have just adjourned for the summer holidays, Europe’s attention will shift to its other lynchpin: Germany.
More specifically, the Sept. 1 elections in Thuringia and Saxony — two states of the former Communist East —will help determine whether the threat posed by right-wing populists is still rising, or whether mainstream parties have begun to win voters back.
While the sociopolitical circumstances and electoral systems of these three European nations vary, the fundamentals are the same and apply more widely across the Western world. Currently, the biggest uncertainty of all — and one that has perhaps garnered less attention that it should — is the fate of moderate conservatism.
In the U.K., for example, voters seemed more determined to inflict a historic drubbing on the Conservatives than they were to embrace the Labour party or its leader, Keir Starmer. Now in opposition, the Tories are split down the middle: Should they try to return to their old “one nation” moderation, or cleave to the simplistic rhetoric on migrants, “culture wars” and the other totems of populist parties around the world?
Les Républicains in France face the same dilemma. The party of former presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy is now a shadow of its former self, coming in a poor fourth in the country’s recent parliamentary elections. Half its MPs now want the party to work with opposition leader Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, while the rest are adamant it should steer clear of her.
As for Germany, its Christian Democratic Union (CDU) now has to tackle a similar problem — albeit from a different vantage point.
Under Friedrich Merz, an acerbic former financier, the CDU has almost completely airbrushed its centrist inheritance from former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Nationally, the party is topping the polls and preparing for government in just over a year’s time. Crucially, as the three members of the ruling coalition — the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) — see their ratings stuck in the doldrums, the CDU appears to be the only mainstream party that could take on the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The next few months will test this assumption. Though polling second nationally, the AfD — the views of which even Le Pen considers unacceptable — is currently ahead in both Thuringia and Saxony, and it’s neck and neck in Brandenburg, which votes just three weeks later.
So far, Merz has portrayed his task in blunt terms: The CDU, he says, is Germany’s only bulwark against extremism — particularly in the east. He also blames Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the malaise of the mainstream, claiming “unresolved problems of everyday life in refugee policy, in schools, in companies and in many areas … are leading to this voter behavior.”
“The opposition cannot halve the AfD [strength] if government policy doubles the AfD.”
The CDU leader has also called on voters from other parties to lend their support in this matter— an approach not dissimilar to the appeal issued by French President Emmanuel Macron after the first round of voting in France at the end of June.
The problem, however, is that Merz has been a divisive figure throughout his career — both in politics and out. His personal popularity suffers due the many years he spent in business, notably as a senior executive at BlackRock, an American investment multinational, and also because he’s unashamedly wealthy — attributes that Germans hold in low regard.
Returning to the political fray in 2018, Merz eventually succeeded in clinching the CDU leadership in 2022 after five attempts. Often outmaneuvered and under-appreciated, will this time be any different for the CDU chief?
Since taking over Merz has shunted his party to the right in hopes of blunting the AfD’s attacks. On the key battleground issue of migration he has shed the “welcome culture” that defined Merkel’s era, veering between attempts at inclusivity and dog whistles of the “I know what you’re really thinking” variety. Accused of being irascible and thin-skinned, Merz once accused Ukrainian refugees of “welfare tourism” — for which he later apologized — and has described the sons of immigrants as “little pashas.”
In a recent interview, however, he insisted he’s moderated his tone. “The closer we get to the Bundestag election [in autumn 2025], the less voters see me as the leader of the opposition and the more they rate me as a potential chancellor,” he said. “And so there will be fewer interventions of the kind you’ve seen in the past.”
But tactics are the more pressing issue. The CDU has always been part of a consensus among Germany’s mainstream parties not to cooperate with the AfD at any level of politics — least of all in any form of coalition. However, this “firewall” has at times threatened to crack, particularly in local councils.
The problem is most acute in Thuringia, where the AfD is classified as an extreme organization and its leader, Björn Höcke, is constantly in trouble due to his links to neo-Nazis. The issue is that the party is extremely popular in the region, which — more than any other — remains mired in East German grievance.
With the parties of the federal coalition almost invisible here, the CDU will have to work with someone else in order to form a viable government. Having ruled out working with the Left party — a decision that raised eyebrows — the only option is the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) — a new grouping named after its founder.
A former member of the Left, Wagenknecht has made the now-standard horseshoe move from far left to far right, with the BSW now polling around 10 percent in Thuringia, and above the 5 percent threshold across Germany at large. Furthermore, because the BSW doesn’t carry the historical baggage or stigma of the AfD, it’s being regarded as the “respectable” face of the alt-right — which, to put it politely, is rather debatable.
This is the same problem other countries are facing — although dressed in different colors. Which begs the question: At what point should these populist groups be embraced — in order to absorb them — and when should they be confronted, even if it leads to defeat?
Conservatives in the U.K. and France are now bracing for a long spell in the political wilderness. In Germany the situation is reversed, with the CDU almost certain to win next autumn’s general election — such is the disappointment felt toward Scholz and his coalition partners.
And yet somehow, so close to power, it’s no clearer what the CDU stands for.
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