Despite mainstream media’s support in the early days of her fledgling presidential campaign, Kamala Harris still has ground to make up in the battlegrounds against Donald Trump.
That’s the upshot of a Redfield and Wilton nine-state survey conducted July 22 to 24 that shows the Republican nominee ahead or tied in all but one state.
While Harris leads Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41% (with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%), and the two are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each (with 5% to Kennedy), the other numbers go the former president’s way.
In Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly is getting a hard look as a running mate on the Democrat ticket (with the encouragement of the state party, no less), Trump leads Harris 46% to 43%, with Kennedy taking 4%.
In Florida, which the vice president’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said wasn’t in play when President Biden was the nominee, Trump leads 47% to 39%, with Kennedy mired at 5%. Last time this pollster sampled Florida, Biden was in the race and trailed by 7, so Harris has plenty of work to do to close the gap in a state with nearly 1 million more Republicans than Democrats.
Trump leads by 5 points in Georgia, 47% to 42%, with Kennedy taking 3%.
In Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was talked up as possibly getting a spot on what would be a historically unprecedented all-female ticket on a major-party slate, Trump leads 44% to 41%, with Kennedy at 7% — his best showing in any state in this battleground survey.
Nevada is a relative nail-biter compared with other swing states polled. There, Trump is ahead 45% to 43% over Harris. Kennedy is still a nuisance here, taking 5% support.
North Carolina is a 3-point race in Trump’s favor: 46% to 43%, with another 4% backing Kennedy. Gov. Roy Cooper is under consideration as Harris’ running mate, and he could be a strategic pick in a state Trump carried four years ago by 1.34% of the vote.
In pivotal Pennsylvania, where Gov. Josh Shapiro is yet another Democratic governor under consideration to be Harris’ running mate, the spread is 46% to 42%. As in so many of these states, Kennedy is a single-digit spoiler, with 5% support.
If these results are validated in November, it will be quite a reversal of fortunes for Democrats. Biden won all of the states polled here in 2020 except Florida and North Carolina.
This time, Trump would also be taking more Democratic votes from the 2020 election than Harris would from the Republican ledger in seven of the states polled — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Certain issues play to one candidate’s strengths over the other’s in this survey.
Trump is trusted more across the states on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, national defense and Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Harris gets higher marks on health care, reproductive rights and environmental policy.
This is only the most recent group of battleground polls to show a tight race in the swing states with a slight Trump advantage.
Emerson College polling conducted July 22 and 23 shows Trump with marginal leads in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2).
And just like in the Redfield and Wilton survey, Emerson has the two candidates in a dead heat in Wisconsin.
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