Kamala Harris Is Erasing Donald Trump’s Gains With Union Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris is erasing former President Donald Trump‘s gains with union voters in most key states, according to a new poll.

Union voters could be a decisive group in the 2024 presidential election, as they are a key voting bloc in several swing states. Union voters traditionally voted for Democrats, who have embraced more pro-worker policies but have shifted to Republicans in recent election cycles.

A new Emerson College poll shows Harris making gains in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, though Trump’s support has grown in Pennsylvania.

The poll comes as Harris appears to be the front-runner to secure the Democratic Party‘s presidential nomination after President Joe Biden ended his campaign over the weekend. His withdrawal follows weeks of pressure from prominent Democrats concerned about his ability to win the election in November amid poor polling numbers.

Harris’ polling numbers for months have been on par with, if not worse than, those of Biden. However, her supporters believe she will be more capable of leading a robust campaign that can win over swing voters and rebuild enthusiasm among Democrats.

Several polls released this week show her continuing to trail Trump but making progress over Biden.

An Emerson College poll released on Thursday showed Trump continuing to lead most battleground states, though Harris’ numbers have generally improved upon those of Biden in the pollster’s June swing state survey.

Trump held a 5-point lead in Arizona (49 percent to 44 percent), a 2-point lead in Georgia (48 percent to 46 percent), a 1-point lead in Michigan (46 percent to 45 percent) and a 2-point lead in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 46 percent). Harris and Trump were tied in Wisconsin, each receiving 47 percent of the vote.

The poll marks a shift toward Harris compared to an Emerson College poll conducted earlier in July. In that poll, Trump held an 8-point lead in Arizona (46 percent to 36 percent), a 5-point lead in Georgia (44 percent to 39 percent), a 3-point lead in Michigan (43 percent to 40 percent), a 6-point lead in Pennsylvania (46 percent 5o 40 percent) and a 3-point lead in Wisconsin (46 percent to 43 percent).

Harris has made gains with regard to union voters in several swing states, according to the poll.

In Arizona, union voters are roughly split between Harris and Trump. Harris won support from 43.8 percent of them, while 43.4 percent backed Trump. However, a June 20 poll found that Trump won them against Biden by 26 points (59 percent to 33 percent).

In Michigan, Harris won union voters by 24 points (59 percent to 35 percent). In June, Biden held only a 7-point lead among union voters (51 percent to 44 percent).

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Harris is leading Trump by a wider margin among union voters, primarily due to an increase in undecided union voters. The poll found that she held an 11-point lead (51 percent to 40 percent) among union voters. In June, Trump had a 7-point lead among union voters (53 percent to 46 percent).

Pennsylvania, however, delivered better news for Trump. He held a 4-point lead among union voters over Harris (50 percent to 46 percent), compared to Biden’s 4-point lead in June (50 percent to 45 percent).

In June, Trump held a 4-point lead in Arizona (46 percent to 42 percent), a 5-point lead in Georgia (47 percent to 42 percent), a 1-point lead in Michigan (45 percent to 44 percent), a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 43 percent) and a 3-point lead in Wisconsin (47 percent to 44 percent).

The latest poll was conducted from July 22 to July 23. It had a sample size of 800 respondents in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, 850 in Pennsylvania and 845 in Wisconsin.

The earlier July poll was conducted among 1,00 registered voters on June 15 and June 16, 2024. The June poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters in each state from June 13 to June 18, 2024.

On Thursday, Harris is set to speak to the American Federation of Teachers, which has endorsed her campaign, according to the Associated Press. The AFL-CIO has also endorsed Harris’ campaign.