Former President Donald Trump would likely get “slapped down” by Vice President Kamala Harris were the two to go head-to-head in a debate, according to presidential historian Allan Lichtman.
Often called the “Nostradamus” of U.S. presidential elections due to his record of correctly predicting the outcome, Lichtman said: “Do you think Trump wants to debate Harris? No,” during a livestream on his YouTube channel.
“So he’s in a tough spot,” Lichtman, who has been critical of Trump in the past, continued. “He can debate Harris and I think he’ll be in a lot of trouble. Even Hillary Clinton who’s not as facile as Harris in a debate beat him in every single debate. He’s not going to want to debate Harris, but he’s got a dilemma.”
“He can do one of two things – debate her and likely get slapped down, or duck it.”
If he did “duck it,” Lichtman said Trump would look like a “coward.”
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman, the Harris campaign, and the Trump campaign for comment outside of regular working hours.
“Harris can’t do any worse in a debate than Biden,” according to Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science at University College London. “At the same time, Trump can be a sneaky good debater, and it’s hard to fact-check his firehose of lies on the spot without veering off message.”
Biden’s performance in the June 27 debate was marred by some incoherent statements and a raspy voice, which his team told reporters was due to a cold.
“The debate format could also be a factor. The ‘mute button’ in the first debate saved Trump from himself by preventing his worst impulses — of constantly interrupting and talking over Biden,” Gift told Newsweek.
“If I were advising Harris, I’d let the debate rules be a free-for-all and allow Trump to be his typical bombastic, obnoxious self. The contrast would play to her advantage with most voters who value even a modicum of civility,” he added.
Lichtman is most well-know for developing “The Keys to the White House” election prediction model.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
Lichtman has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 election results using this method.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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