Farnborough International Airshow is the aerospace and defence industry’s Davos – an biennial jamboree where corporate big-wigs, world leaders, generals, air commodores and assorted hangers-on flock to an airfield in Hampshire.
For executives of major airlines, aircraft makers and arms manufacturers, it is about the most important day in the calendar – a chance to return to head office with billions of pounds worth of contracts in the bag.
On paper, this year’s event should result in an unprecedented number of bumper orders. The grim truth is that war is a hugely profitable business and with several major conflicts taking place across the globe, the world’s major powers are rearming at a rate that experts are comparing to the run-up to the Second World War.
It is unfortunate then that Sir Keir Starmer threatens to spoil the festivities with Labour’s newly announced strategic defence review, which won’t conclude until next year. The fear is not just that it will mean a delay to orders in the pipeline but that some existing projects will be scrapped altogether – chief among them the Tempest fighter jet programme.
The Prime Minister must ensure this doesn’t happen. Scrapping Tempest would be nothing short of a disaster for our national security and foreign policy. Without it, Britain will be at the mercy of its enemies, who are not only investing vast sums of money in the latest weapons but increasingly working together to pose an even bigger threat to the West.
Indeed, Sir Keir would do well to heed the warning of none other than Lord Robertson, the former Nato secretary general, whom the Prime Minister has appointed to lead Labour’s defence review.
Britain and its allies are facing a “deadly quartet” of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea who are acting together against the West. Robertson said last week that we have “got to be able to confront that particular quartet”. Military experts believe that the four are increasingly sharing arms, components and military intelligence.
To be able to meet this danger head-on, surely the sensible course of action would be for us to make sure Britain has the most cutting-edge hardware available, something the Tempest programme promises to deliver in spades.
The RAF jet is armed with hypersonic missiles and Star Wars-style “energy-directed” weapons. It is also kitted out to help pilots evade enemy radar, providing 10,000 times more data than current systems. Experts say it will revolutionise air-to-air combat, giving Britain a “world-beating” edge in warfare.
Yet the future of Tempest has never been more uncertain. Labour has sought to present itself as being serious about defence, chiefly with its commitment to honouring Rishi Sunak’s pledge to up spending from 2.3pc of economic output to 2.5pc – Starmer has said it is a “cast-iron” commitment.
The truth is, however, that it is a heavily caveated promise that should be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
The first giant red flag is that Labour won’t set out a timetable for doing so. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, hasn’t ruled out waiting until the defence review has concluded, which could take up to a year. The Government has also said it will not increase spending on the military unless it is also able to grow the economy.
The lack of urgency is terrifying, and will only fuel concerns that Labour cannot be trusted to keep the country safe at a time when national security has never been more critical.
As Lord West, the former head of the Royal Navy and a Labour peer, has been quoted as saying: “When the situation allows is not really good enough – Putin will not wait for our situation to be good enough before he attacks.” In other words, the threat is very much upon us and any delay could come with extremely grave consequences.
On the Tempest programme specifically, the Government is no less vague. Farnborough was the perfect stage for the Prime Minister to put an end to growing doubts about the future of the jet but Starmer fluffed his lines.
Asked if Tempest was “on the table” during the review, the best he could muster was the following: “It is an important programme and I know that people in the room will want to hear me say that”, which is about as meaningless a sentence as it is possible to conceive of.
The mood music coming from No 10, then, is palpably bad. It demonstrates a worrying inability to see the bigger picture. Labour might want to spend money growing the state and public services but scrimping on defence is not a choice we are in a position to make.
The Democrats are in complete turmoil and the prospects of Donald Trump being re-elected have never been higher, which means some potentially far-reaching implications for foreign relations and international security.
Trump’s scepticism towards Nato remains a concern for those who still believe in the alliance – and the views of his running mate JD Vance are even more of a worry.
The firebrand Ohio senator isn’t just an opponent of foreign wars. He has said: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine, one way or the other.”
Having a proper independent Armed Forces that can defend Britain is more important than ever and the Tempest is key to that. China is developing its own advanced fighter jet with the J-20 “Mighty Dragon” and the advantage of air superiority has been demonstrated repeatedly during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It might be uncomfortable for a Labour PM to commit money to defence that could be spent on social projects, but the party must also recognise the world we live in today and Britain’s place in it.
Sir Keir should take lessons from Clement Attlee, who was a social reformer but also acutely understood the importance of a nuclear deterrent. The two things can go hand in hand.
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