Joe Biden is about to embark on what is likely to be a long weekend—but not the good kind we normally associate with summer.
According to reliable reports, Biden will spend the next few days considering whether or not to resign. According to other reports, he may already be focused on how to resign.
For many Americans, watching and holding their breath about what happens next, step one is not to believe any of the reports. No one knows how this weekend or Biden’s deliberations regarding his candidacy will turn out except Biden. And it is a fair bet that even he is unsure of what the outcome of those deliberations will be at this point.
Oddly, the much-anticipated speech by Donald Trump at the RNC Thursday night—which some expected to be an energetic knockout blow to Biden’s candidacy—was anything but. Tedious, rambling, looney, packed with lies, boring, and also subtly and sometimes not so subtly vile and vicious, Trump’s ramblings were those of a deranged leader who knew no one would dare tell him to stop.
Trump’s appalling and yet somehow stupefying display sent home a clear message that he is a beatable candidate, a man only a cultist could love. Having said that, there are plenty of cultists, the Republicans left their convention unified, and every poll still suggests Trump can win.
Which brings us back to the question of who will be his opponent?
It is a question that could make the days ahead the longest weekend of Joe Biden’s life. While we don’t know anything for sure about which way he is leaning, we do know a few things. First, even surrounded by family and constantly talking to friends and allies on the phone as Biden inevitably will do—because that’s what he does, it’s how he works—grappling with the core decision will ultimately be a very lonely process.
For Biden, it is not just about politics. It is about his life. It is about how he feels he will be perceived by those closest to him. It might be about how he feels he will be perceived by history. Because the issue has arisen because of his age, almost certainly, on some level, it will be about grappling with his own mortality.
How do I know these things? Because Biden is a human being.
Speculation is rampant about the factors that will be weighed in his decision. There are stories that say former President Barack Obama is spreading his view that “Biden’s path to winning re-election has greatly diminished.” It is said that Obama and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi as well as other party leaders have urged him to “reconsider” running for re-election this year.
The Washington Post has reported that Pelosi has told her colleagues in the House of Representatives that Biden may “soon be persuaded to exit the race.” The Biden-Harris campaign is, it seems, encountering serious fund-raising turbulence.
While the maxim that the bigger the Washington crisis the less reliable the rumors are should lead us to be cautious, there are enough such stories from usually credible sources that it is reasonable to consider just what the outcomes to the weekend could be.
One possibility of course, is that Biden out of stubbornness or a deep belief in a calculus that he legitimately has the best chance of beating Trump or a sense of duty to those who voted for him in the primaries, will stay the course and announce that upon reflection he is remaining in the race.
However, he now knows that although he has done so in the past, such announcements are unlikely to revitalize donations to his campaign or quash the whispers and the doubts about whether he has a real path to beating Trump. He knows his efforts to directly challenge the doubters have gone badly at times with one recent call with Hill colleagues having been said to go “even worse than the debate.”
The party would also likely remain in turmoil and his every public appearance would be scrutinized in a way that could prove very difficult for the campaign.
These reasons and polls showing that the resistance to him remaining on the ballot is not merely a vendetta conducted by party elites but is the view of a majority of Democrats are why, as of now, many high-ranking Democrats believe that staying in the race is not going to be the conclusion Biden reaches this weekend.
Of course, if I had a dime for every time “many high-ranking Democrats” believed something that ultimately proved untrue, I’d have a lot of dimes.
Nonetheless, because the issue is clearly on the table and being seriously considered, it is fair to ask if he goes, how does he do it?
While his exit will not be the defining moment for his legacy because he has had an extraordinary 50-year career full of big legacy moments, it will likely be hugely consequential. How he steps down could determine who his successor is, how quickly the Democratic Party can coalesce around a new candidate, whether Democrats win and Trump and the Republicans are defeated and by how much in November, and the nature of his future influence within the party.
For example, it is likely that if he states simply that he has decided upon reflection that running would not be in the best interests of the country or the party, he is likely to generate a huge amount of respect and goodwill. His most ardent supporters will be heartbroken.
But the majority in the Democratic Party who believe he should step down will see it as a selfless, patriotic act that underscores that the overriding objective of the Democratic Party must be to defeat Trump, Trumpism, the MAGA movement, to defend democracy and to stop the right’s push toward authoritarianism dead in its tracks.
But that alone is not enough. Because immediately upon making the announcement everyone—the country and the world—will become fixated on the question who will take his place atop the ticket. This is a trickier question for Biden. It might appear that by stepping back and saying he will embrace an open convention that he will be striking a blow for intra-party democracy.
But Biden has an heir apparent. Biden has a running mate who, like him, was also elected by the American people in 2020. If Biden were to do anything that seemed to fall short of enthusiastically endorsing and working for the election of Kamala Harris, he would appear to be indifferent to the base who elected him, disloyal to a partner who has stood by him through thick and thin and served him well and, I believe, short-sighted regarding what would be best for the Democrats and the country.
Not only is Harris the candidate who can carry forward the Biden legacy best and run on the great Biden-Harris record as none other can, she already has deep experience running on the core issues of the moment. Indeed on women’s reproductive rights and protecting our basic freedoms, she is already the leading voice within the administration and the most effective one in the Democratic Party.
Biden was stung when Barack Obama did not immediately endorse him to be his successor. He can be guided by that moment to say, what’s good for the gander is good for the goose or he can appear more magnanimous than his previous boss. He would also be quelling party infighting, giving the party maximum time to unify around a new ticket and ensuring that his stepping aside is not in vein, that victory is the likely outcome.
Doing so requires more than just backing Harris, however. It also would require working for her. That might entail lining up party elders to back her as a unified group. It would certainly entail helping to raise funds and hitting the campaign trail for her. Importantly, it would also require making sure that his team graciously supports the handover to Harris and a team that she picks, ensuring that she was in the lead and not simply a new face for the existing operation.
To do all this even as he is grappling with his own disappointment and that of his family will not be easy. But if he has the courage and the generosity of spirit and the wisdom to approach one of the most difficult tasks any American politician has ever faced, it would burnish his already glittering presidential record and, more importantly, would maximize the likelihood that this November’s election will not be the last free and fair election this country ever sees.
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