Key battleground states could see record voter turnout in 2024, a new poll by YouGov suggests.
The pollster surveyed seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – in early July. In all seven, more than 80 percent of respondents said they will “definitely” vote.
In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 85 percent, 80 percent, 82 percent, 85 percent, 83 percent, 84 percent and 86 percent said they would vote, respectively.
Although turnout in most of these states was fairly high in 2020, with most in the high 60 percent and low 70 percent range, the 2024 numbers look to be far higher, if the poll is to be believed.
According to data compiled by the University of Florida’s Election Lab, which examined turnout in every state since 1980, no single state has ever seen a turnout higher than 80 percent.
By comparison, nationwide, the last time the United States saw a turnout above 80 percent was in the election of 1888, according to Statista. In 1896, turnout was 79.6 percent.
YouGov says the survey was conducted July 4-12 for The Times and the SAY24 project for Stanford, Arizona State and Yale Universities. The sample size for each state was 1,000, except in Arizona and Wisconsin (where it was 900) and Nevada (where it was 800).
Success in these battleground states will be crucial for either Donald Trump and Joe Biden to secure victory in November. The race for the White House has been a close affair so far.
Even after his attempted assassination on Saturday, Trump has not seen a huge spike in support, though the events of the weekend appear to have firmly united the Republican party behind the former president.
The 2020 election set the record for the highest voter turnout in 120 years, and the highest record for mail-in voting.
In 1876, some 81.8 percent of eligible voters cast their votes, setting the record for turnout in a U.S. presidential election.
This election saw Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden go head to head, though neither of them won a majority. A commission was set up by the House of Representatives, which awarded the victory to Hayes.
Swing states, also known as battleground or purple states, play a pivotal role in U.S. presidential elections due to their potential to swing toward either major political party. Unlike most states, which consistently vote for the same party, swing states can fluctuate, making them critical targets for presidential campaigns.
Historically, elections have been won or lost based on performances in key swing states. For instance, in the 2000 election, the results hinged on Florida, where George W. Bush won by a mere 537 votes, securing his presidency. Similarly, in 2016, Donald Trump’s victories in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were crucial to his electoral success, despite losing the national popular vote.
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