A summer wave of Covid is surging in many parts of the nation. Infections, emergency room visits and hospitalizations are all on the upswing.
Recognizing that Covid is now a permanent respiratory threat, as are influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, federal officials have recommended that everyone 6 months and older receive the newest vaccine this fall.
If last year is any indication, many Americans may pay no heed, opting instead to take their chances with another bout. Nearly everyone has layers of immunity acquired from prior illnesses and immunizations. For many, another go-round with Covid just means a few days of misery.
But for some people with certain risk factors — age, pregnancy, chronic conditions or a compromised immune system — an infection may bring serious illness. “It’s very, very important that they get vaccinated,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the V.A. St. Louis Health Care System.
In every age group, even a mild illness may trigger a lasting set of problems. Nearly 14 million Americans, or about 5.3 percent of adults, may now be living with long Covid, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A study published on Wednesday offers strong evidence that vaccination reduces the odds of getting long Covid.
“It’s very clear that no demographic group is spared,” Dr. Al-Aly said.
Does Covid still matter?
Yes. This summer’s wave is a sign that Covid remains a problem. By nearly every measure, infections are on the rise.
Virus levels in wastewater nationwide in June were twice that of levels seen in June 2023. Emergency department visits related to Covid in the week ending on July 6 increased to 1.3 percent from 1.1 percent the week before. The percentage of positive tests rose to 11 percent from less than 9 percent.
Hospitalizations also appear to be increasing, but those estimates lag the others by two weeks, and the trends are based on data from only a small subset of hospitals.
When will a new vaccine be available?
Novavax, Moderna and Pfizer are all making new Covid vaccines, which should be available before the end of September.
The Novavax vaccine will target JN.1, the variant that dominated in the winter and spring. Pfizer and Moderna are making shots aimed at KP.2, which now accounts for about one in four new cases.
Two related variants, KP.3 and LB.1, together account for more than half of new cases. All three variants are descendants of JN.1, so each of the vaccines is expected to be effective against them.
Who should get it?
Ideally, everyone should get a Covid shot, said Dr. Michael H. Merson, a global health expert at New York University.
“Practitioners really need to focus on people always at greatest risk,” he said. “But I would recommend it for everyone, just like I would for flu.”
As in previous years, older Americans are most at risk of severe illness. Adults aged 65 and older account for two-thirds of Covid hospitalizations and more than 80 percent of in-hospital deaths. Less than half of adults in that age group were immunized last fall.
But in every age group, most of those who were hospitalized had not received one of the shots offered last fall, according to C.D.C. data.
Although younger adults are much less likely to become severely ill, there are no groups completely without risk. Children are also vulnerable, but only 14 percent were immunized against Covid last fall.
Immunizing everyone, including schoolchildren, can also help limit the spread of the disease, Dr. Merson said.
Does vaccination reduce the odds of long Covid?
Hospitalization and death should not be the only factors considered, Dr. Al-Aly said. Long Covid is most likely following a severe illness but can also develop in people who only had mild symptoms.
A healthy 30-year-old may not be at risk of severe disease or hospitalization, and the “risk of death is really very, very, very, very small,” he said. But “we still see tons of people in the clinic who are young and previously healthy coming down with long Covid.”
In the new study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, Dr. Al-Aly and his colleagues provided persuasive evidence that vaccines cut the risk of long Covid.
Before the vaccines were introduced, about 1 in 10 people had long Covid one year after being infected. After the shots were available, 9.5 percent of the unvaccinated developed long Covid after an infection with the Delta variant, and 7.8 percent did so after infection with the Omicron variant.
But among vaccinated people, only 5.3 percent developed long Covid after infection with the Delta variant, and 3.5 percent after infection with the Omicron variant.
The average age of participants in the study was 64, but it included more than 63,000 people under 40 — about 14 percent.
Is there any reason not to get the vaccine?
Like all vaccines, Covid shots pose some risk. The C.D.C. acknowledges only four major side effects, but thousands of Americans believe they were harmed by the vaccines.
Some side effects are very rare, while others, like heart inflammation, may be slightly more common. Some critics say that federal officials have not done enough to investigate possible side effects.
Still, for most Americans, the vaccines continue to be far safer than contracting Covid.
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