Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s Across the Pond column.
It was supposed to be a celebration. NATO has been the cornerstone of security and peace in Europe for 75 years — a military alliance that enabled a Continent devastated by two world wars to emerge much more secure, prosperous and united.
But last week’s NATO summit didn’t feel much like a celebration. Sure, there were concerts and plaudits, social dinners with toasts and speeches. There was even a Presidential Medal of Freedom for outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Yet, for all the reveling in the alliance’s past success, there was no escaping the anxiety that permeated every discussion across the three-day affair.
For starters, war had returned to the Continent, and its brutality was underscored by the horrendous strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv.
Additionally, many NATO leaders arrived in an uncertain or weakened political state, either because they’d suffered major electoral reversals — like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz — or they’d only just become leaders of their countries, like British Prime Minsiter Keir Starmer and Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.
But the largest sources of the anxiety stemmed from two men who weren’t even present: Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
After 40 months of brutal fighting in Ukraine, Putin is as determined as ever to subjugate Ukraine by force. He’s transformed Russia’s economy into a war-fighting machine and is sacrificing some 1,200 young men each day to get what he wants. He won’t stop unless defeated. And until then, war will remain a constant presence in Europe.
Every NATO leader — perhaps apart from Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán — is gravely concerned about the danger Russia represents, and is committed to helping Ukraine defend itself. Several important announcements were made to that end, including the news that NATO leaders would send more anti-missile defenses to protect cities and troops along the front lines, that they’d deploy F16 combat planes this summer, beef up security assistance and training at a new command in Germany, and that they’d pledge at least $40 billion on military assistance next year.
The summit also signaled a renewed commitment to bolstering deterrence and the defense of NATO members. Europe as a whole now spends 2 percent of its combined GDP on defense — as do 22 of its 30 European members. Non-U.S. NATO countries have boosted annual spending by $180 billion since 2020, and now spend over $500 billion annually, which is more than three times what Russia’s projected to spend this year.
But after decades of underinvestment and spending cuts, there remains much more to be done. However, virtually all NATO countries now understand the urgency of fielding a beefed-up military in order to meet the threat from the east.
It’s not just Russia, though — another major source of European anxiety is the U.S. When representatives arrived in Washington, the city was in a complete frenzy about whether its host was up to the job of leading America for another four years. Everyone wanted to know if U.S. President Joe Biden was still mentally fit during his private meetings, and nothing else seemed to matter.
Of course, European leaders demurred, saying this was an issue for Americans to decide and that they thought Biden was “on really good form,” as Starmer put it. But the reality is they would take Biden in a wheelchair over the alternative. And their biggest worry is that Biden’s evident post-debate weakness makes the latter more likely.
The danger Trump represents to European security was underscored just hours after the 32 NATO leaders had gathered in the Mellon Auditorium, celebrating the historic treaty that was signed by 12 nations in the very same room 75 years earlier.
Speaking from a teleprompter at a campaign rally in Florida, Trump admitted he “didn’t know what the hell NATO was too much before,” but that he’d soon figured it out. “We were paying almost fully for NATO. And I said that’s unfair.” He then repeated the story he told in February about a European leader who asked whether he would defend them if they didn’t pay more. “I said, ‘No, I will not protect you from Russia.’”
For Trump, NATO’s all about dollars and cents — a transactional arrangement rather than one of mutual security, deterrence or the prevention of war. This is worrying allies — as is his attitude toward Ukraine, a war he claims he would end “within one day.” Europeans are concerned Trump will try to strike a deal with Putin — with whom the former president said he had a “very good relationship” — going over their heads and Ukraine’s.
All of this leaves Europe with a clear choice: Either hope for the best — whether that’s Biden winning, being replaced by someone who can beat Trump, or Trump turning out to be not so bad — or just get serious about their own defense.
Thankfully, the NATO Summit has started laying the foundation for the latter. According to new NATO defense plans, increased spending has been matched by a major pledge to rebuild national defense industries; the EU is embarking on a defense industrial production strategy; and European allies are providing many of the forces and much of the capabilities necessary to defend their territory. Nearly all are fully committed to help Ukraine prevail over Russia.
The best way to address anxiety is to face up to its causes and deal with it. So, in a Continent that’s threatened by Russia and uncertain about America’s future, security and defense will simply have to rest more on Europe — and less on the U.S.
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