ROME — At 1 p.m. on Thursday, in the French city of Strasbourg, Europe’s two most powerful women will face their shared moment of truth.
A vote in the European Parliament will determine whether Ursula von der Leyen gets the second term as European Commission president that she craves. It will also set the tone for the rest of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s time in power.
And it’s possible that only one of them will emerge a winner.
The vote to ratify von der Leyen’s reappointment at the head of the EU executive comes after European leaders nominated her for another five-year term, after months of speculation and secretive negotiations. That’s where the trouble started for Meloni.
The hard-right Italian leader was cut out of a backroom deal done in Brussels among liberal leaders like President Emmanuel Macron of France, von der Leyen’s centrist conservatives, and the socialists of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez.
That left Meloni angry. It also left von der Leyen with a potential problem that is now coming into focus. While in theory she’ll have enough support from conservatives, liberals, greens and socialists to win the support of the Parliament on Thursday, it’s a secret ballot and as many as 15 percent of the MEPs who are expected to support her might not do so.
That’s where Meloni could help: She heads the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group of MEPs, whose 78 votes could prove critical to von der Leyen’s fate.
So far, however, Meloni has ruled out ordering her troops to back the German official for a second term. After what von der Leyen described as an “intense hour” of talks with the ECR group on Tuesday, it still wasn’t clear which way they would vote. Different parties within the group, from a variety of countries, are likely to make their own decisions.
Thursday’s vote puts Meloni “at a crossroads, where she must make a choice that will be decisive for her own political future,” said Marco Valbruzzi, a political scientist at the University of Naples Federico II. “She must either accept the opportunity to be part of the majority that expresses [support for] the leader of [the] Commission, or remain outside, which I think will be difficult for her.”
In Brussels, officials have made clear there is no Plan B if von der Leyen is not confirmed in her role. Should she fall short of the 361 votes she needs in the 720-seat Parliament on Thursday, EU politics will once again be thrown into chaos and confusion — at an acutely sensitive time.
With Russia’s war in Ukraine deep into its third year and Donald Trump advancing in his campaign to regain the White House, stable EU leadership is widely seen as vital for the continent’s economic and political security.
There’s a lot at stake in Rome, too.
If Meloni supports von der Leyen’s candidacy, she will cement her place as a mainstream moderate voice in European affairs. If she orders her MEPs to abstain, she risks consigning the party — and Italy — to the margins. But that’s not all.
It’s a particularly painful dilemma for Meloni because it forces her to choose between her pragmatic instincts as a national leader on the world stage, and the political beliefs she’s espoused for years as a campaigning politician in Italy. After all, she’s only in this bind due to the sort of backroom Brussels stitch-up she and her fellow Euroskeptics have made their names condemning.
Although Meloni remains popular domestically, Italian politics is notoriously fickle and fractious. Her coalition partner, Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, has made opposing von der Leyen’s second term a pillar of his foreign policy. Last week, Salvini was forced to deny media reports that he had said if Meloni “votes for von der Leyen, she’s finished.”
Fascist roots
The Brothers of Italy trace their origins back to former fascists who emerged from the rubble of World War II, but Meloni has tried to modernise the party on a conservative model. For Valbruzzi, the political scientist, Thursday’s vote represents “the most important moment of Meloni’s premiership so far.”
Despite political pressure from the far right in Italy, there are good reasons why Meloni might decide it’s in her domestic political interest to back von der Leyen. Chief among them is Italy’s perennially perilous economic position.
Von der Leyen has been a reliable partner for Meloni, rubber-stamping Italy’s compliance with the EU’s post-pandemic economic recovery plan, and approving the timely release of funds. Ironically, as Meloni will be well aware, a left-leaning EU Commission is an essential crutch for indebted countries like Italy.
After June’s European Parliament election returned a strong showing for far-right parties, Italy’s borrowing costs increased as investors reasoned that the EU’s solidarity policies were less likely to continue, according to Carlo Cottarelli, a former Italian senator and senior IMF official who now directs the economic and social sciences program at the Catholic University of Milan. “When there is a crisis, Italy depends on the solidarity mechanisms of the EU,” he said.
Von der Leyen has also shown herself to be flexible on issues important to Meloni’s party, such as tackling migration, defending agricultural interests and toning down climate policy.
When von der Leyen met ECR MEPs on Tuesday, they welcomed these overtures. But according to one person familiar with the talks, Meloni’s lawmakers also demanded “a radical change of step on the Green Deal” climate policies, “pragmatic” agricultural policies, and new deals with African countries to block migrant departures. Meloni will also be looking for maximum flexibility on how Europe’s debt rules are interpreted for Italy.
Meloni’s allies have made clear their support will depend on whether von der Leyen gives them a powerful position in the new-look European Commission. That means a big portfolio for the Italian commissioner — perhaps a role in distributing funds, as well as the post of a vice president or an executive vice president in the Commission.
Whatever happens, the party is not expected publicly to announce its decision either way. But supposedly secret votes have a way of coming out.
If von der Leyen wins with a large majority, it will be obvious that Meloni rescued her. In that case she can only resort to a defense prepared in advance: Rather than acting in her party’s interests, she was working to deliver “the maximum result for Italy.”
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