On a blighted industrial corridor in a struggling section of Erie, Pa., a long-abandoned iron factory has been humming with activity for the first time in decades. Construction crews have been removing barrels of toxic waste, knocking down crumbling walls and salvaging rusted tin roofing as they prepare to convert the cavernous space into an events venue, advanced manufacturing hub and brewery.
The estimated $25 million project is the most ambitious undertaking the Erie County Redevelopment Authority has ever attempted. It was both kick-started and remains heavily funded by various pots of money coming from Biden administration programs.
Yet there is no obvious sign of President Biden’s influence on the project. Instead, the politician who has taken credit for the Ironworks Square development effort most clearly is Representative Mike Kelly, a Pennsylvania Republican who voted against the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law that is helping to fund the renovation.
It is one example of a larger problem Mr. Biden faces in Pennsylvania, a swing state that could decide the winner of the 2024 election. In places like Erie, a long-struggling manufacturing hub bordering the Great Lake that is often an election bellwether, Mr. Biden is struggling to capitalize on his own economic policies even when they are providing real and visible benefits.
Now, an assassination attempt on former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Butler County, Pa., could further influence voters, though exactly how it will sway them remains unclear. But Mr. Biden’s standing in his home state was already growing precarious before a gunman opened fire on Saturday, killing one attendee and injuring Mr. Trump.
In a poll of likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from July 9 to 11, just before the shooting, 48 percent said they would vote for Mr. Trump and 45 percent said they would vote for Mr. Biden in a two-way race.
Mr. Biden’s political problems in Pennsylvania underscore a reality dogging the White House: The president has sent lots of money to places like Pennsylvania, but other economic issues are eclipsing its benefits. Across the state, the administration is often blamed for the spurt of rapid inflation that has pushed prices higher on his watch.
“Since Biden’s been in, inflation really kind of took off,” said Savon Robinson, 30, a steel grinder who works at a local foundry.
Mr. Robinson said he planned to vote for Mr. Trump, even though he sometimes has to defend his political choice to friends and family. On one hand, his wages have been going up: He is making $19.47 an hour, up from $18.68 a year ago, and he expects another raise in August. But he does not feel as though he is getting ahead.
Mr. Biden’s campaign has tried to sway voters by emphasizing that the president has been good for blue-collar workers and local infrastructure. He has made a series of campaign stops in Pennsylvania, and his campaign has 36 offices speckled across the state. The Biden campaign had also been running ads on local TV channels accusing Mr. Trump of having no plan for the economy. (The campaign suspended ads after the shooting.)
Mr. Trump’s ads in Pennsylvania had been blaming Mr. Biden for rising home costs, a recent influx of immigrants and rapid inflation. And those points seem to be resonating with at least some voters, even though inflation has been a global phenomenon since the pandemic and has cooled substantially in recent months after peaking in 2022.
As they waited in line to see Mr. Trump speak at Temple University in Philadelphia last month, his supporters pointed to their concerns about food prices and housing affordability as reasons they would not back Mr. Biden.
“I used to go to Wawa and get a mac and cheese; it used to be $3.99,” said Reilly Herrera, a 25-year-old machine operator for the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, who lives in Oxford, Pa. “It’s almost $7 now.”
For Caroline Frank, of Chester County, elevated mortgage rates are her biggest concern because they have made it hard to sell her house and downsize after the recent death of her husband. She blames Mr. Biden’s spending policies for creating the inflation that brought on higher rates.
“I had more money in my pocket,” Ms. Frank said of the economy during the Trump years. “I didn’t live paycheck to paycheck. I want to be able to sell my house since my husband passed away, but I can’t even do that because the interest rates are so incredibly high.”
Noting that her interest rate is below 3 percent, she added, “Where am I going to go and what am I going to buy?”
Such discontent could translate to an uphill battle to victory for Mr. Biden in Pennsylvania, which he won in 2020.
Even outside of inflation, Pennsylvania’s economic track record has been mixed in recent years. Unemployment in the state is very low, at 3.4 percent. That is below the national rate and much lower than 4.7 percent in early 2020, just before the onset of the pandemic and under the Trump presidency.
But people are still participating in the labor market at lower rates than before the pandemic, meaning that a smaller share are working or looking for work. And while factory employment is bouncing back, it remains just below 2020 levels.
That mixed backdrop could help to explain why Mr. Biden has struggled to overcome his economic vulnerability — higher prices — with his economic wins.
The administration has funneled money into the state both in pandemic relief and in the form of infrastructure investments like bridge renovations and road resurfacing. The American Rescue Plan poured about $22 billion into Pennsylvania, and the infrastructure legislation sent another $11 billion in funding to the state for transportation, based on White House estimates.
“This administration’s investments in public safety, infrastructure, work force development and child care are impacting Pennsylvanians’ everyday lives — reducing crime, creating jobs and giving hard-working families some breathing room,” Natalie Quillian, the White House deputy chief of staff, said in a statement.
Senator Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat who has been crisscrossing the state as he seeks re-election, said that voters have been bearing the brunt of higher prices and that their confidence remains shaken after the trauma of the pandemic. In an interview, he suggested that people are feeling worse off now because much of the pandemic-era stimulus money that went straight to families and workers has ended.
Another big challenge for Democrats, Mr. Casey said, is that voters are not aware of the party’s achievements because of a “gap in information.”
“People are not always following the day-by-day coverage of government, or what bill passed,” Mr. Casey said in an interview. “Sometimes, the only way they see it is when it becomes either plainly evident in their communities or in their lives, or they learn about it in the course of a campaign.”
Part of the problem is that it can be difficult to tell exactly which projects the White House has helped to spur. Money is sloshing around the system from an alphabet soup of different legislation, and much of it is administered by state or local authorities that take credit.
The Ironworks Square development in Erie is a good example. The Erie County Redevelopment Authority has cobbled together about $16 million of the $25 million total project cost through debt financing and grants, said President Tina Mengine. Much of that funding stemmed from Biden administration programs.
The project got more than $5 million from the American Rescue Plan, the pandemic stimulus program passed in 2021. Another $5.5 million that will be split with another site has come from the Environmental Protection Agency through the infrastructure law. The development has been further funded by a $1.5 million grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission, which in turn got the money from the infrastructure law.
But it is not always readily apparent that the Biden administration is responsible.
For instance, the only way to know that the $1.5 million grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission traces back to the infrastructure law is by checking with the commission directly. And Mr. Kelly took credit for that particular grant, noting that he had written a letter of support for the project, even though he had voted against the legislation funding it.
The project is “a collective effort made possible by Representative Kelly and a team of dedicated community leaders,” said Matt Knoedler, a spokesman for Mr. Kelly.
Because of the way the money is being parceled out, even the government itself is not always aware of what projects it is funding.
Prominent government spending trackers, including ones managed by the White House and Mr. Casey’s office, either do not mention the government’s investments in Ironworks Square or do not mention their full scope.
And while the E.P.A. has highlighted the project in news releases and a regional agency administrator visited in May, even bringing a “President Joe Biden: Investing in America” sign, he did not leave it behind.
Tom Melisko, a business manager at the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 66 outside Pittsburgh, has been putting Biden-funded projects in his email updates to his members. He is trying to make the point that administration investments have helped them, bolstering business and creating jobs.
“He’s been so good for us, for the working people, for unions — it’s hard not to be a fan of his,” Mr. Melisko said. “I try to throw the facts out to our members. How you feed your family, it should be a no-brainer. Joe Biden’s your guy.”
But even with the union’s official support, Mr. Melisko said he expected about a third of his membership to vote against Mr. Biden. Many have ties to the oil and gas industry and Mr. Biden is seen as bad for fracking, which is big business in Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump has embraced the motto “drill, baby, drill.”
Administration officials think that job gains, slowing inflation and some obvious investments — like a bridge in Pittsburgh that was quickly repaired after a collapse — could get through to voters.
“We have plenty of receipts as we speak right now,” said Mitch Landrieu, Mr. Biden’s senior adviser for infrastructure coordination.
Some outsiders doubt that. Roman Kozak, the chair of the Beaver County Republican Party, is himself running for state office and has gone around knocking on doors this year — he estimates nearly 5,000.
The county has seen repaired bridges and an $858 million dam renovation megaproject start under Mr. Biden’s watch, promising to create thousands of local jobs during construction. But Mr. Kozak said he did not think that infrastructure investment was resonating. The reason is simple: Voters are more occupied with high prices.
“At the end of the day, that’s not beneficial to people’s pocketbooks,” he said.
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