It was early 1996 when German soldiers in combat gear stepped onto the territory of another European country for the first time since World War II. The Germans did not come to , or Blue Helmets, but as part of the NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR).
In 1992, the former Yugoslavian republic had been plunged into the bloodiest war on European soil since 1945 by the country’s ethnic Serb minority, with the support of the troops of the Serbian autocrat Slobodan Milosevic. In December 1995, the warring parties, the neighboring countries and the heads of state and government of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany signed the Dayton Peace Agreement.
NATO formed IFOR, which was succeeded by the Stabilization Force (SFOR), to maintain the ceasefire and stabilize peace in the small southeastern European state.
German Bundeswehr soldiers not prepared
Germany participated but the was only partially prepared for the mission in the mountainous country. The soldiers of the German army had not been trained for “out of area” operations. At times, they had to widen roads because the heavy military equipment was unable to pass through.
During the , the Bundeswehr of the German Federal Republic (West Germany), which joined NATO in 1955, had primarily been responsible for defending against a possible attack by the Warsaw Pact countries, which were in the Soviet zone of influence and included the socialist (East Germany).
There were half a million Soviet soldiers stationed in East Germany. And the GDR’s National People’s Army (NVA) boasted over 150,000 additional soldiers.
Every year, scenarios of an attack were enacted in NATO maneuvers and exercises that took place on flat land in northern Germany, primarily with tanks.
The idea was that Leopard main battle tanks and Bundeswehr units would defend against such an attack from the east until unrestricted air sovereignty was established with the help of NATO’s largest member, the US.
German army has halved in size
From 1958 to 1972, the West German army grew in strength from 249,000 to 493,000 troops.
Until the , the number of troops hovered around 480,000. When the Bundeswehr integrated the National People’s Army, with the primary aim of phasing out its structures, the number increased again briefly.
Some 20 years later, there were only about 200,000 soldiers left in the Bundeswehr. By 2023, it only had 181,000 members, according to the German Ministry of Defense.
Only a small proportion of these soldiers are trained to be deployed for combat as part of NATO missions.
Afghanistan deployments
The Bundeswehr’s role in NATO changed again after the 9/11 attacks on the US in 2001 prompted the US to invoke the alliance’s common defense clause and met its treaty obligations. The German army was part of the US-led coalition that went on to invade and oust the .
For a long time, the Bundeswehr concentrated on training up units that could be transported quickly, even to Afghanistan. Until the , or “turning point,” a term coined by in a speech to the German parliament just days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
many in the military had not been preparing for such a surface land attack in Europe, three decades after the end of the Cold War.
Leadership role for Germany?
During the Cold War and in the years since the US has always played a leading role within NATO. No other country invested as much in the military as nuclear power, which still has more than 100,000 military personnel stationed in Europe.
But US protection could be lost if Donald Trump becomes US president again. Trump has threatened not to protect NATO partners that do not spend enough money on defense from Russia. He would even encourage Moscow to do “whatever the hell they want.”
Will Germany therefore take on a leading role in NATO in the future? The Bundeswehr must become “a guarantor of conventional defense in Europe”, said Chancellor Scholz in a government statement in June 2023. But it still lacks the personnel, equipment and capabilities to do so.
has since said that the Bundeswehr must become “war ready.” Some analysts predict that Russia, which has switched to a war economy, could launch an attack on NATO territory in fewer than five years.
After three decades of “out of area” operations, the Bundeswehr would currently only have enough ammunition to defend itself against such an attack for a few days.
Therefore, the idea now is to upgrade NATO to such an extent that it can be a strong deterrent to Russia attacking NATO territory. Just as it was during the four decades of the Cold War.
This article was translated from German. It was first published in April 2024 and updated on the occasion of NATO’s 75th anniversary in July 2024.
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