After two days off, Euro 2024 action resumes on Saturday with the round of 16.
The first match of knockout play features Switzerland taking on Euro 2020 champ Italy (noon ET, FS1), followed by host Germany’s 3 p.m. matchup against Denmark on FOX.
Switzerland-Italy looks like an intriguing potential stumbling block for the Italians, while Germany is expected to cruise past the Danish in Dortmund.
Switzerland vs. Italy Moneyline odds
Switzerland vs. Italy Betting Analysis
The Swiss wrapped up an impressive appearance in group play with a 1-1 draw against Germany on June 23. Switzerland’s status as the underdogs here likely has a lot to do with the public’s memory of Euro 2020, which Italy memorably won after taking down England on PKs in the final.
So far at Euro 2024, Italy has produced arguably the goal of the tournament (Mattia Zaccagni’s last-second strike to salvage a crucial draw against Croatia epitomized “must-see”). Otherwise, it hasn’t been pretty.
Italy only lost 1-0 to Spain, but benefited from a misleading final score due to a number of squandered opportunities by La Roja, while the 1-1 draw vs. Croatia would have ended in a shutout loss if not for Zaccagni’s late heroics.
Based on what these teams have put on display to date, Saturday’s match should be a coin flip, if not an uphill climb for the favored Italians.
Germany vs. Denmark Moneyline odds
Germany vs. Denmark Betting Analysis
There’s not a ton to dig into in Germany-Denmark. Danish midfielder Christian Eriksen’s story is incredible, and this team deserves some credit for getting a result in all three of its matches in Group C. That being said, the ability to draw the likes of Slovenia and Serbia doesn’t quite scream, “ready to knock off host nation Germany.” And while on paper, drawing Euro favorite England sounds like an impressive accomplishment, but … yeah, about that England side (so far, so decidely not invincible).
The setting of Saturday’s match, the raucous Westfalenstadion, makes it that much tougher to see Denmark pulling off the upset. Germany weren’t perfect in group play, but Saturday’s opponent more closely resembles the Scotland and Hungary sides that the Germans handled with relative ease in Group A than the Swiss squad that nearly upset them.
Switzerland vs. Italy, Germany vs. Denmark Best Bets
Play 1: Switzerland vs. Italy — Switzerland to advance (+116) FanDuel
With knockout play underway, there is an additional way to bet on matches besides the three-way moneyline. “To advance” bets are exactly what they sound like: a way to predict the winner. These bets cash as long as you pick the winning side, whether they get the victory after 90 minutes, in extra time or via PKs.
For all the previously mentioned reasons, Switzerland have a great chance to win this in 90 minutes. A safer play if you like the Swiss but think this match might need extra time is Switzerland to advance, which is still plus-money.
Play 2: Germany vs. Denmark — Over 2.5 (-106) bet365
While Saturday’s early game looks like it has the potential to not just go under 2.5, but possibly under 1.5, Germany-Denmark is a great bet to go over 2.5, especially at this price. Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team scored eight goals in group play, including five in the opener alone.
Germany’s talented attackers could cover this number themselves, making it a solid bet, even in a tournament that has featured a ton of low-scoring matches.
Play 3: Switzerland vs. Italy — Under 1.5 (+150) DraftKings
Typically, there’s plenty of value for bettors who expect a low-scoring game if they take Under 2.5. But for Switzerland-Italy, Under 2.5 is priced around -225 — or longer — at most sportsbooks.
Given the way these two play, not to mention how often we see teams afraid to take risks in knockout matches, a 1-0 or 0-0 result through 90 minutes seems likely enough to justify a big swing at Under 1.5 at +150.
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