Within the first half-hour of the presidential debate, I heard from three veteran Democratic presidential campaign officials, and all of them had the same reaction to President Biden’s performance: This is a disaster.
By the end of the debate, I was hearing a level of anxiety and alarm from those Democrats and several other party leaders and operatives that I’d never seen in 20 years of covering presidential politics. The discussion turned squarely to the need for the Democratic Party to replace Biden as the 2024 nominee, with four months to go to the election, and how to make that happen.
Could former President Barack Obama talk him out of the race? Could Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader and an old friend? Most of the Democrats agreed that only Jill Biden and the president’s family, and his longtime close aides, could get Biden to reconsider the race.
The Democratic panic was, on one level, a little shocking, given how much Donald Trump lied during Thursday’s debate and, more broadly, because of the threat that Trump poses to American democracy. Trump has already betrayed the Constitution, and Thursday night he wouldn’t promise to accept the 2024 election results and gave a weak answer about opposing political violence. He got worse as the debate went on, hurling unhinged attacks on Biden, even calling him a “Manchurian candidate.” His relative steadiness in the first 30 minutes started coming undone.
But the danger of a second Trump presidency is exactly what is fueling the panic. Democrats say Trump must be stopped. The Democratic nominee must stop him. And what we saw Thursday night was a Democratic president who could not effectively respond to Trump or deliver a memorable line — even when he rightly said of Trump, “Something snapped in you when you lost the last time.”
It wasn’t just that Biden wasn’t landing a glove on Trump on the economy, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Covid, taxes, temperament or anything else that was coming up in the questioning. It was Biden’s voice (low and weak) and facial expression (frozen, mouth open, a few smirks) with answers that were rambling or vague or ended in confusion. He gave remarks about health care and abortion that didn’t make strong points, giving Trump a chance to say lines like, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”
Biden is only three years older than Trump, but he looked and sounded 20 years older. One Democratic National Committee official told me before the debate that Biden’s age was Democrats’ biggest problem and texted on Thursday night, “Things have gone from bad to worse.”
One of the other Democrats said Biden looked scared during the debate as he listened to Trump. Another said it was an “emperor has no clothes” performance. The third said of the performance overall, “Don’t ask.”
Several others said that Biden had to drop out and that a governor — Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro — needed to seek the nomination at an open convention. One said that Vice President Kamala Harris was a key player and voice now in any outcome but not to assume she would be a post-Biden nominee.
None of the Democrats counseled patience or said that the pundits or instant reaction was off base. But I am mindful of how things change. There was anxiety after Obama’s first, bad debate performance against Mitt Romney in 2012. There was confidence in Hillary Clinton’s debate performances against Trump in 2016. There are four months to go before the election, and candidates can recover. Trump being Trump, he has plenty of time to do damage to himself.
Frank Luntz, a veteran focus-group moderator who was holding a live focus group with undecided voters during the debate, wrote of their reactions after the first half-hour of the debate: “The group is so bothered by Biden’s voice and appearance. But they’re getting madder and madder with Trump’s personal attacks.”
“If Trump talks less,” Luntz said, “he wins. If Biden doesn’t stop talking, he loses.”
After the debate was over, Luntz wrote: “Twelve out of 14 say they are now leaning Trump. One chose Biden and one didn’t move. This is an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats.”
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