Putin Is Banking On a Trump Win for His New World Order

I don’t know which moment in American history Donald Trump imagines when he says, “Make America great again.” He has never given a clear answer in any speech or interview. But I know exactly which moment Vladimir Putin imagines in his own vision for Russian greatness. It is February 1945, when Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill divided the world in Crimea.

Three months remained before the surrender of Nazi Germany, but it was clear that the Allies were winning. To determine what the world would look like after the defeat of the Third Reich, the US president, British prime minister, and Soviet leader went to the city of Yalta, a resort area in Crimea. Stalin achieved everything he wanted: He convinced his then allies that he should have his own “sphere of influence,” which included all of Eastern Europe—Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, the former Czechoslovakia, and the former Yugoslavia. The leaders also devised the United Nations Security Council, on which they secured permanent member seats for their countries.

This structure existed for the next 45 years, de facto collapsing along with the Soviet Union. Putin once called the extinction of the Eastern bloc “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Throughout his presidency, Putin has repeatedly said that the world needs a “new Yalta.” If the old world order no longer works, a new one must be invented.

He began talking about this in 2007 during his famous Munich speech, in which he challenged the US-dominated unipolar world order for the first time, and has repeated the proposal many times since, including in his speech at the UN in 2015, in Davos in 2021, and in his addresses to the Russian parliament almost every year.

But for a new Yalta, Putin needs suitable partners, including a US president who would agree to divide the world with him.

Since Soviet times, there has been a stereotype in the Kremlin: It is easier to negotiate with Republicans than with Democrats. This stems from the détente between the USSR and the US during the Nixon and Ford administrations; Jimmy Carter, the thinking goes, paid too much attention to human rights. Kremlin officials still believe that Republicans are constructive partners, while Democrats are hypocrites posing as saints.

At first, Putin considered George W. Bush a suitable partner—after all, Bush even “looked the man in his eye” and “was able to get a sense of his soul.” But after 2004, when the US supported the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and other “color revolutions” in the former USSR, Putin began to fear that Bush wanted to overthrow him too. Moreover, the Kremlin sincerely believed that Bush wanted to become the military dictator of the world. Putin was astonished when, after Hurricane Katrina, Bush’s ratings plummeted and he did not cling to power, did not attempt to change the Constitution, did not seek a third term—the things Putin himself would be ready to do for power.

Putin never trusted Barack Obama. He always believed that when American politicians talked about values, it was all hypocrisy, masking some cunning, inevitably anti-Russian plans. In 2013, Putin watched the (fictional) series House of Cards, and he took it as proof that he was right. All his expectations and fears were confirmed: Indeed, American politicians were cynical, cruel, and deceitful. He just needed to wait for the right person to come to power.

Back in 2011 and 2012, Putin believed that the mass protests against his third term were organized and funded by the State Department under Hillary Clinton. Therefore, in 2016, he had no doubts. He saw the Democratic candidate as a personal enemy.

From the moment Trump was elected, the word Yalta became one of the most popular among Kremlin officials. They were confident that Trump was the right person to agree to such a spectacle. This did not mean that Russian authorities considered Trump “their puppet”—the Kremlin never had any means to influence him. Putin simply believed that Trump was morally close and understandable to him: a fellow cynic who also thought that money solved everything.

However, the scandal over Russian interference in American elections ruined all these plans. No rapprochement occurred. Moreover, aside from a few brief meetings during international summits, Putin and Trump held only one full-fledged negotiation—in Helsinki in 2018.

But now the Kremlin believes that if Trump wins in November, everything will be different. It hopes he will no longer pay attention to the liberal media or the criticism of the Democrats. Moreover, the Kremlin is convinced that Trump is ready (at least rhetorically) to dismantle the old world order and claim credit for creating a new one.

The fantasies of Kremlin strategists have developed like this: A new Yalta Conference with Putin and Trump might not necessarily take place in Crimea. For greater symbolism, somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, roughly equidistant from Russia and the US, would be more suitable. My sources in Moscow, who wish to remain anonymous for security reasons, suggest that such a summit could look good on Fiji. The Pacific archipelago is conveniently equidistant from Russia and the US.

Putin’s entourage understands that despite his ambitions, he is not like Stalin in 1945, and today’s Russia is no match for the Soviet Union. Therefore, the dreams of the current Kremlin inhabitants suggest that another participant in the new “Big Three” should be China, represented by Xi Jinping. They believe that the real Cold War is beginning between China and the US, so the upcoming “Yalta: Fiji” should formulate the rules of this confrontation. And Putin is ready to be content with the role of the third partner, a kind of modern-day Churchill. Of course, he wants to secure his place on the global board of directors that is the UN Security Council and expects to be allotted his sphere of influence: the countries of the former Soviet Union.

While fantasizing about the future of the US under Trump, the Kremlin harbors another dream. It sees it as the ultimate revenge for the Cold War defeat and the collapse of the USSR. Putin’s current advisers are confident that the US will eventually disintegrate, breaking into several pieces like the Soviet Union ultimately did. This would require the right conditions and a leader who could plunge the country into chaos. You might be surprised, but the nickname used for Trump in the Kremlin is the American Gorbachev.

For them, Mikhail Gorbachev is not a democrat or a reformer. For former KGB officers, Gorbachev is a demagogue and a narcissist who desperately wanted to please the audience but had no plan of action; a president whose policies were so chaotic that the empire began to fall apart, with different parts declaring their independence. This is wishful thinking, but Putin’s inner circle would like to believe that Trump could become just such a president.

Moreover, since American cinema is an important source of information and inspiration for Putin’s analysts, they have already received the necessary confirmation from Hollywood: Civil War, starring Kirsten Dunst, is evidence to them that the situation in America is worsening by the day. The disaster film is treated as almost a prophecy. They are therefore convinced that they are on the right track. Just a little more, and Trump will agree to a new Yalta. And then the US will disintegrate, and Russia will win the new Cold War.

Vladimir Putin believes that his dream is not so unattainable.