This article is part of the Hungarian presidency of the EU special report.
You have to feel sorry for Hungarian officials.
Despite Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s track record as the EU’s provocateur-in-chief, diplomats have been working overtime to stress that Budapest wants to have a normal, successful period when it steps into its role as referee of discussions between EU countries starting July 1.
But the choice of the rip-off Trump slogan “Make Europe Great Again” as Hungary’s motto for the six-month stint gives an inkling that maybe not everyone is entirely on message.
While the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU is meant to put countries in the role of honest broker, asking them to set aside national interests to achieve compromise between countries, the reality is that the position comes with key agenda-setting power in Brussels. The question is what Hungary will do with that.
“We are aware of the fact that we will be watched very closely whether we cooperate sincerely with member states and institutions and whether we will be honest brokers,” Hungary’s EU Minister János Bóka told POLITICO.
“This will be scrutinized closely, and maybe even the standards will be higher with Hungary than with other presidencies,” he said, stressing that Budapest would meet this higher bar.
The problem? Brussels ain’t buying it.
In recent years, Budapest has been a constant thorn in the EU’s side, notably delaying or watering down sanctions against Russia, blocking military aid to Ukraine, and not upholding the rule of law domestically — an ongoing saga that led the EU to block (and then partially unblock) funds for Hungary.
With few believing that Orbán won’t use the opportunity afforded by the presidency to tilt things in his direction, the EU has worked hard to get a number of sensitive files out of the way before the Belgian presidency expires: Opening accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, pushing through another sanctions package against Russia and waving through billions in military aid for Ukraine.
“The pressure on the Belgian presidency was clearly there: get the deals done before Orbán comes in, to limit too much damage,” said one EU diplomat who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Until earlier this month, Budapest continued to block a number of key files, much to the irritation of the other 26 countries. There was even talk of withdrawing Hungary’s voting rights.
“Any normal presidency would want to get those files off the table to create some goodwill before they take over,” an EU official said. “But that’s not how the Hungarians work. They waited until the last minute to unblock.”
Fast forward 6 months
To the relief of some in Brussels, the Hungarian presidency does not come at a key legislative moment.
“The Hungarian presidency only lasts for half a year so I don’t think that big damage can be done, even if these conflicts escalate between Hungary and the EU institutions,” said Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute.
Attention in Brussels is currently focused on instaling a new European leadership bench following the EU election on June 9. Once the new Commission president is greenlit by Parliament, it’s up to countries to put forward their candidate commissioners, each of whom then has to face a grilling and a vote in the European Parliament.
By the time the new European Commission actually puts forward any legislative proposals for the member countries to get their teeth into, the Hungarian presidency will be almost over.
“It will be a very political presidency,” said Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield, a Green European lawmaker. “It’s not a presidency where there will be legislative work.”
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks. You can expect a media show when Orbán goes to the European Parliament, which last year floated a number of strategies to weaken, if not entirely block, Hungary’s presidency.
A global stage
Without a meaty policy agenda to pursue, Orbán is likely to use his time at the helm of the EU on the international front, said Milan Nič, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “He wants to utilize the influence that he can have bilaterally with third parties.”
Those third parties may not be to everyone’s taste.
Orbán has cheered former U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid for reelection and will organize an informal European Council meeting in Budapest right after the U.S. election in November.
And in stark contrast to the positions taken by his fellow EU leaders, the Hungarian prime minister regularly cozies up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. A Russian influence operation via Hungary is a key concern of other European capitals ahead of the presidency, EU diplomats told POLITICO.
Bóka disputed this, saying that “there is nothing to substantiate the statement that we are close to Moscow, that we are friendly to Moscow, and the same goes with Beijing.”
He called the Hungarian position on the EU’s foreign policy “pragmatic” and “with the Hungarian and European interests at its core.”
Paradoxically, a global spotlight could help keep Orbán in check, said Krekó. “He will use it to exploit his international reputation … I tend to think that the Hungarian presidency will not have that many scandals because if you just do a mess and destroy the opportunity to have influence on things then it can highly backfire.”
Orbán may also use the occasion to influence ongoing efforts to unite the right following a rightward shift in the European Parliament election, although his Fidesz party is still politically homeless since leaving the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) group in 2021.
Across the bloc, hard-right parties are quickly entering government, most recently in the Netherlands. The far right is also likely to gain ground in the upcoming French and Austrian elections.
“That will be the real challenge,” another EU diplomat said. “In the short term, Brussels will be able to limit the damage. But in the case of a Trump reelection and more unification of the right in Europe, Orbán may be able to increase his influence and leverage within the bloc.”
Camille Gijs, Jacopo Barigazzi and Eddy Wax contributed reporting.
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