Brussels is abuzz with talk that European Council President Charles Michel is trying to take down his nemesis, Ursula von der Leyen, the powerful European Commission chief.
Eight EU diplomats, officials and national government officials told POLITICO they fear Michel is out to get von der Leyen at the tail-end of their dueling presidencies and years-long rivalry by attempting to thwart a potential second term for the Commission chief.
“It is driving everyone crazy, because his game is so obvious: making von der Leyen stumble and dreaming of his own top job,” said one EU official. The official, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about two of the EU’s most well-known figures.
Behind the scenes, the power war between the European Union’s top two officials played out over canceled lunches and strategically spun off-the-record statements from one side of Rue de la Loi to the other. The tense dynamics spilled out into plain sight on a visit to Ankara in 2021 when Michel snagged the only chair available next to the Turkish president, leaving von der Leyen relegated to a nearby couch, in what became known as Sofagate. She later leveled allegations of sexism in the European Parliament.
Some have suggested Michel is angling for the EU foreign policy chief role, succeeding Josep Borrell, with whom he has a good relationship. His strategy will be to pull heads of state aside for one-on-ones instead of discussing the top jobs together with everyone present, which is traditionally how these deals are done, said a few of the eight diplomats and officials.
To complicate matters further, Michel presides over the process of dividing up the top jobs that will take place after the EU election, including over the decision by EU leaders that could see von der Leyen appointed for a second term.
“He is not a candidate. As the president mentioned many times, he is and will be entirely focused on his job as EUCO President, and uniting the European Council in delivering substantial decisions,” said Ecaterina Casinge, a spokesperson for the president of the European Council.
In the past few weeks, some European countries have become increasingly nervous about Michel’s real agenda.
“Many member states are concerned that Charles Michel won’t play a constructive role, but rather pursue a personal revenge agenda,” one EU diplomat said, capturing the mood among many of their colleagues.
As officials shepherd a deal between the 27 heads of state and government on the next presidents of the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, as well as the next foreign policy chief, some fear Michel is using the opportunity as pay-back time.
On paper, the 65-year-old von der Leyen is the candidate to beat for European Commission president.
Since taking on the job in 2019, von der Leyen’s reputation as crisis-manager-in-chief has risen during the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while Michel has been the subject of grumbling, criticism and ridicule. His whiplash decision to leave his job early to run as a candidate for the European Parliament before quickly backtracking only increased annoyance across the bloc with the Belgian liberal.
Not only is von der Leyen the incumbent, but her European People’s Party is polling ahead of the competition, leaving them on solid footing to keep her in power. It’s also hard to see which other candidate stands a chance of shoving her from her perch.
In theory, then, the obvious play would be for Michel to make a quick top jobs deal by locking in a second term for von der Leyen and putting in place the rest of the leadership puzzle.
Unless, of course, one takes into account Michel’s other alleged agenda items: mutiny and more power.
“He sees the comparison with von der Leyen as fundamentally false and unfair,” said another EU diplomat.
Von der Leyen’s team declined to comment.
Once Michel’s term ends on December 1, it cannot be renewed and the former Belgian prime minister has no obvious exit strategy. So, why not gun for another prestigious, EU-level role?
And Michel might have enough von der Leyen naysayers ready to pounce in the days before the European election.
In Brussels, there has been some pushback against von der Leyen’s authority and her centralized leadership style. France, whose president Emmanuel Macron is one of the most important voices around the leaders’ table, has been coy in proclaiming his support, potentially to extract concessions or as an opportunity to rejig the top table. In the European Parliament, the socialists and the liberals, who are part of von der Leyen’s EPP coalition, are increasingly attacking her potential cooperation with right-wing leaders and parties.
One of the EU diplomats said it all comes down to “me, myself and I” with Michel.
But the same EU diplomats above who said Michel was out for revenge immediately shrugged off his ability to grab another top job as unlikely. Michel would not stand a chance, they said.
Still, it is better to be safe than sorry, they argue. Therefore, the current assumption is that the 27 EU leaders will bypass Michel as much as possible in the top jobs discussion when they meet for the more formal discussions in Brussels on June 17 and on June 27-28.
Another EU diplomat sarcastically referred to a phrase Michel’s chief of staff sometimes uses to bin a proposal from the EU’s member countries.
“There is no appetite among EU leaders for this scenario.”
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