Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.
The highlights this week: New Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te begins his term with a strong message for Beijing, China offers condolences after the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Chinese companies engage in a technology price war over large language models and other artificial intelligence products.
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Taiwan Inaugurates Lai Ching-te
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, who was inaugurated on Monday, gave a strong speech calling on China to maintain peace and saying he would resist attempts at coercion from Beijing. Lai, who served as vice president under outgoing leader Tsai Ing-wen, is seen as more radical on Taiwanese independence than his predecessor, although he softened some during his campaign.
China has an obligate level of response to even a hint of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. That is driven by both ideological demands and personal needs: Anything other than extreme language on Taiwan can make an official seem unreliable and kill their career. As a result, China’s official rhetoric on its democratic neighbor is always full of fireworks.
Judged by those standards, the Chinese response to Lai’s speech was fairly mild, relying on cliches such as “playing with fire” and arguing that Lai “wantonly advocated separatism.” All of this language is par for the course, and Beijing has not yet matched it with any increased aggression like it has used in the past, such as cyberattacks or air incursions.
For one thing, China has more pressing problems to worry about, principally its slumping economy. That makes Taiwan a backburner issue for now. Under other circumstances, Lai’s election may have prompted a cycle of panic and response on the mainland, but the Taiwanese leader is also significantly restrained by a divided government, with legislative power currently in the hands of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
Although the KMT’s pro-China elements are sometimes exaggerated, Beijing has influence within the party and may believe that Lai is contained. There is an incentive for everyone involved, from KMT politicians to China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and security services, to boast about how successful they have been in opposing Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). (That has previously backfired on the Taiwan Affairs Office when it has failed to predict DPP success.)
Meanwhile, Taiwan has seen large protests this week aimed at the KMT-controlled legislature, which is pursuing bills that would considerably expand its powers, including allowing it to hold hearings and punish people for not participating. Opponents say this offers a chance for show trials driven by political ends. The KMT also seeks changes to the Control Yuan, the powerful political ombudsman body that has the power to impeach officials.
The KMT is also attempting to revive the Special Investigation Division (SID), which the Ministry of Justice abolished in 2016. The SID is known for opening the case that led to the imprisonment of the DPP’s first president, Chen Shui-bian, on corruption charges in 2009. The SID also prosecuted some KMT politicians, including a complicated case against Legislative Yuan leader Wang Jin-pyng in 2013 involving internal party struggles.
The protests include supporters of Lai as well as civil society groups concerned about the potential overreach of the bills, drawing comparisons to the successful Sunflower Movement in 2014. The demonstrations seem mostly focused on Taiwan’s civil society and values, rather than possible Chinese influence. On Tuesday, thousands of protesters gathered around the Legislative Yuan building—some holding signs saying, “I’m in contempt of congress.”
The bills, which seem poised to pass, are largely aimed at allowing the KMT-controlled legislature to undercut the DPP presidency. This may be shortsighted—after all, the DPP could win back the legislature in the future—but Taiwanese politics is contentious. A brawl broke out in parliament during debate over one of the reform bills, and a lawmaker literally ran away with it.
What We’re Following
China responds to Iran crash. Beijing offered condolences to Tehran on Monday over the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash that killed seven others, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, over the weekend. China also hinted at its desire for continued regime stability rather than a power struggle.
Chinese state media referred to the possibility of internal contention but downplayed it, while Chinese President Xi Jinping praised Raisi’s role in establishing “security and stability.” Beijing-Tehran ties are extensive, with China supplying Iran with tools of repression as well as remaining the main buyer of Iranian oil.
The praise for Raisi also reflects how China doesn’t care much about global communism when it comes to geopolitics, despite Xi’s revival of communist rhetoric at home. In the 1980s, Raisi served as a judge on one of the prosecution committees that sentenced thousands of political prisoners to death, including Communist Party members. (Equally, China’s repression of Islam doesn’t bat an eyelid in Tehran.)
Pacific island intrigue. Newly elected Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele recently told Australia’s defense minister that the island nation was reviewing its security relationship as it continues its swing toward China. Manele, like his predecessor, is pro-Beijing. Meanwhile, China is seeking to build close ties with key local elites in the Philippines, despite the government’s turn against China under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
The localized politics of the Pacific region, combined with the key locations of many countries there, makes it a particularly intense battleground for Western and Chinese influence. Recently, this tension surfaced dramatically in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia, where a heavy-handed French police crackdown on protests may weaken the country’s efforts in the Pacific.
France has sought to build its own anti-China coalition in the region, where the remnants of the French empire have a surprisingly lasting presence. To complicate matters, France is blaming Azerbaijan—itself moving closer to China—for supposed meddling in New Caledonia. (Despite having no presence in the Pacific, Baku’s oil revenues mean it has substantial lobbying influence worldwide.)
Tech and Business
AI price wars. Another price war among Chinese technology companies has begun, this time over the availability of large language models—the linguistic data-processing technologies increasingly adopted by corporations worldwide, despite their unpopularity with users and legal hiccups. On Tuesday, Alibaba slashed prices for a raft of artificial intelligence services by as much as 97 percent, followed by Baidu trotting out a suite of free products.
Both firms are trying to establish themselves as the default, assuming there is a long-term shift toward the use of large language models that will create a dependent user base. I would bet on Alibaba coming out on top, given Baidu’s shaky record on AI and its current public-relations crisis. The Chinese models are somewhat behind their Western counterparts, in part due to political concerns about the content produced.
However, for those who are worried, a large language model trained on Xi Jinping Thought will soon be available from China’s internet regulators.
European trade tensions. China is hinting at retaliation as the European Union investigates Chinese government subsidies in key sectors, such as electric vehicles. The U.S. tariff increase on electric vehicles announced last week may be followed by EU measures to protect its markets from a flood of cheap Chinese EVs.
Although the EU is ahead of the United States in EV introduction, it has big ambitions for the transition. Xi’s visit to Europe this month seems to have done little to assuage fears within the bloc about Chinese industrial overcapacity.
FP’s Most Read This Week
A Bit of Culture
Southern Song dynasty poet-official Lu You (1125-1210) was happily married to his first wife, known as Tang Wan, but his mother forced them to divorce due to her dislike of her daughter-in-law and the lack of children from the marriage.
Years later, after both had remarried, Lu supposedly bumped into Tang again in the Shen Family Garden in Shaoxing and wrote this poem to describe the meeting. Today, the site is a tourist spot that commemorates their story.—Brendan O’Kane, translator
A Phoenix for Her HairBy Lu You
Soft pink hands,Wine with the yellow seal,A city filled with the sights of spring:willows behind palace walls.
The East Wind cruel,The one I loved, cold,A breast full of nothing but regrets.Parted now how many years?Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!
Spring as ever,But how we’ve wasted away.Tears stain rouge-redthe silk-gauze kerchief through.
Peach blossoms fall,Pavilions and ponds unmoved.The vows we made, still firm as mountainsBut a letter would be useless now—Don’t! Don’t! Don’t!
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