Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: India’s national election begins with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party favored to win, South Asian capitals call for Israel-Iran de-escalation, and the Maldives aims to bring in more Indian tourists.
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India’s national election begins on Friday and runs for six weeks, through June 1. At first glance, the vote may seem similar to two others in South Asia this year. Just as in Bangladesh in January and Pakistan in February, an incumbent government is favored to win, and the election is playing out against a backdrop of sidelined opposition leaders and growing crackdowns on dissent.
However, India’s election and its broader political environment stand in contrast to political trends across the region—mainly because of the striking popularity and longevity of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A recent survey put Modi’s public approval rating at 75 percent, a remarkably high figure for a head of government in office for nearly a decade. Many factors account for this popularity: Modi’s personality, his leadership model, his achievements, his ideology, and India’s weak political opposition. The main electoral uncertainty is not if Modi and the BJP will win, it’s by how much.
Many of Modi’s critics say that India’s electoral playing field is unequal, but that isn’t quite accurate. They point out that India’s government has arrested opposition leaders on politically motivated charges and increased its influence over the country’s election commission, damaging opponents’ prospects. But the BJP enjoys overwhelming support, and the national political opposition does not.
Even if the Indian state weren’t targeting opposition parties, such is the strength of the BJP that the opposition’s chances of electoral success might not improve that much. Away from national politics, the calculus is a bit different. The BJP has lost a few recent state and local elections to either the main opposition Indian National Congress or smaller regional parties. But these parties can’t hold a candle to the BJP’s countrywide clout.
Then there is the longevity factor. In South Asia, few elected leaders or parties have held power as long as Modi and the BJP. Nepal has had 13 governments since 2008. Pakistan has seen a series of weak coalition governments since the end of its formal military rule the same year. Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe took office in 2022, after his predecessor resigned amid anti-government protests.
Only Bangladesh’s prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, has held office longer than Modi—since 2009—and she has benefited from polls that election observers have deemed not free or fair. Both Modi’s popularity and the fact that India’s opposition hasn’t been able to put forward a strong, charismatic leader that can counter him suggest that the prime minister will face little threat to his political survival as long as he stays in office.
Some reckoning for the BJP may not be that far off, even assuming the party wins this year. Whether Modi opts to try for a fourth term in 2029 remains uncertain. If not, the BJP will face major questions, chief among them the issue of his successor. The appeal of Hindu nationalism would help the BJP’s cause, but it would need to make headway on long-standing issues that could make it vulnerable, from widespread unemployment to the challenge posed by China.
For now, Modi occupies a special status as one of South Asia’s most popular and longest-tenured leaders, with little intrigue attached to an election that is likely to bring him another huge public mandate. It’s a far cry from the volatility that has characterized polls and politics elsewhere in the region in recent years.
What We’re Following
Calls for Iran-Israel de-escalation. Soon after Iran’s attack against Israel over the weekend, a few South Asian foreign offices issued similar statements calling for immediate de-escalation. Instability in the Middle East works against the interests of states in South Asia, especially Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. They have major energy and trade interests in the Middle East, as well as many citizens working in the region.
Both India and Pakistan have important friendships with key Middle East powers, especially the Arab Gulf states—and in India’s case, Egypt and Israel. Pakistan will find itself playing a notable diplomatic role amid the crisis.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister was in Islamabad for a planned visit on Monday and Tuesday, with the Iranian president scheduled to visit the capital next week. What was likely envisioned as dialogue about trade will now focus on geopolitics. Pakistan has a long-standing alliance with Saudi Arabia and has long struggled to stay neutral in the Iran-Saudi rivalry.
BJP election manifesto. Last Sunday, the BJP released its manifesto for this year’s election. The policy document plays on one of Modi’s main campaign slogans, the Modi guarantee, by vowing to build on his promises to make India a safer, healthier, better educated, and more prosperous country. Echoing Modi, the party has pledged to take further steps to make India a developed country by 2047, the centennial of its independence.
The manifesto is weighted toward domestic issues, with less said about foreign policy. This may acknowledge the reality that voters are more concerned about issues at home than abroad. The opposition Congress party’s manifesto is around half the length of the BJP’s 70-page document; it, too, focuses on social welfare and development, with a short section on foreign policy.
The Congress party manifesto also pledges to move beyond the BJP’s divisive politics, to promote democracy, and to work for all Indians—a common message for the party on the campaign trail, but one that will likely fall flat for most Indian voters.
Maldives seeks more Indian tourists. In the latest signal that the Maldives is keen to keep up robust relations with India even as it moves closer to China, a top Maldivian tourism body announced last week that it will work closely with the Indian High Commission in Male and host “road shows” in Indian cities to try to bring more Indians to the tourist haven.
In January, senior Maldivian officials insulted Modi on social media after he posted pictures of himself enjoying the beaches of India’s picturesque Lakshadweep archipelago. Soon after, a campaign headlined by a few celebrities called on Indians to stop visiting the Maldives. According to Maldives government figures, as of April 10, India had only the sixth-highest number of tourists arriving in the Maldives this year, with China leading the way.
Economic factors drive Male’s desire for more Indian tourists, but India arguably has geopolitical motivation to bring more people to the Maldives, with the island state becoming a prime battleground for competition with China.
Last Sunday, 23 Bangladeshi crew members were released more than a month after their ship was hijacked in Indian Ocean waters by Somali pirates on March 12. The ship was transporting coal from Mozambique to the United Arab Emirates.
Many of the details surrounding the release, which coincided with the Bengali new year, are unknown; the Bangladeshi company that owns the ship said that negotiations took place, and some media reports said the pirates were paid a $5 million ransom. It is unclear what role the Bangladeshi government played in talks.
The Red Sea has grabbed recent headlines amid a surge in Houthi attacks, but the western reaches of the Indian Ocean have seen a rise in security threats as well. Ships plying these seas often have crew members from South Asia, and the risks—which could intensify as pirates exploit instability in the Middle East—will add to the concerns of regional capitals.
In Dawn, analyst Muhammad Amir Rana writes that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari can help their country balance ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran. “Sharif’s family is considered close to the Saudi camp, while the Saudis have doubts about the PPP [Zardari’s party] leadership’s credentials on sectarian matters and their approach to Iran,” he writes.
Poet and playwright Abhi Subedi pens an ode in the Kathmandu Post to the late Nepalese writer and historian Chittaranjan Nepali, who died last year. Nepali “had a keen interest in heroic epic characters in history who lived up to the expectations of the common people,” Subedi writes.
In the Print, Shantha Venugopal warns that Indian policymakers must be mindful of the risks of social costs in the country’s energy transition. To ensure that social “disbenefits to marginalized communities are minimal, policymakers must be aware of the social dimensions of decarbonization policies and projects,” she writes.
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