Israel Prepares for Iranian Attack in the Near Future

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at an expected Iranian attack on Israel, Ukraine’s efforts to bolster conscription, and a record-breaking fraud scandal in Vietnam.

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Iran’s Looming Threat

The Middle East is on high alert for a “significant” Iranian attack against Israel in the coming days. Tensions skyrocketed last Monday when Israel bombed an Iranian consular building in Syria, killing 12 people, including seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among those killed was Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led the IRGC’s Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria—making him the most senior IRGC officer killed since the United States assassinated Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in January 2020.

When Israel “attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.” Israel has not taken formal responsibility for last week’s bombing, but U.S. officials said Israel ordered the strike.

Officials fear that Iran may launch a direct missile strike at Israel from its soil rather than through a proxy force, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Should that occur, it risks sparking a wider war. “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed similar sentiments on Thursday, telling Israeli Air Force personnel, “We have determined a simple rule: Whoever harms us, we will harm them.” He said Israel is preparing for “scenarios involving challenges” in locations apart from Gaza.

U.S. President Joe Biden vowed on Wednesday to defend Israel against an imminent Iranian attack, adding that Washington’s commitment to Israel’s security is “ironclad.” On Thursday, Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, visited Israel to discuss coordinating with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk asked the foreign ministers of Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday to urge Iran to lower tensions.

Israel continued its war against Hamas on Thursday, announcing it had carried out a precise operation to kill militants in Gaza. The announcement came just one day after an Israeli airstrike reportedly killed three sons of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political wing. It is unclear if the Thursday announcement was related to the strike on Wednesday. Haniyeh’s sons were active in Hamas’s military, with one serving as a cell commander and the other two being lower-level operatives. One brother was also allegedly involved in holding Israeli hostages. Hamas said four of Haniyeh’s grandchildren were also killed, though Israel did not confirm these deaths, and Haniyeh denied that his sons were fighters for the group.

Analysts said the sons’ killings aimed to threaten Hamas’s leadership amid ongoing cease-fire negotiations rather than hinder the group’s operational capabilities. Yet Haniyeh said the airstrike will not deter Hamas. “The enemy will be delusional if it thinks that targeting my sons, at the climax of the negotiations and before the movement sends its response, will push Hamas to change its position,” he added.

Hamas told mediators on Wednesday that it does not have 40 living hostages that match Israel’s criteria in the latest proposed cease-fire, which states that during the first six-week pause, Hamas would release 40 hostages—including all women as well as sick and older men—in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. In response, Israeli officials pushed Hamas to free younger male captives, including soldiers, during the initial release.

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What We’re Following

Kyiv’s conscription efforts. Ukraine passed a mobilization law on Thursday to replenish the nation’s troops. It requires all draft-eligible men to carry documents that show they are registered with the military. To try to prevent public backlash, the policy offers financial incentives for soldiers, including a bonus for front-line troops and death benefits for victims’ families, as well as new penalties on men who try to evade enlistment.

Despite growing demand for a cap on mandatory service, though, the law did not include a 36-month timeline for demobilization. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to sign off on the policy soon, but the last time that Kyiv passed significant mobilization legislation—when draft eligibility was lowered to age 25—Zelensky waited almost a year to approve it.

The law’s timing aims to provide a reprieve for some of Ukraine’s exhausted and depleted troops as Russia continues its attacks. On Thursday, Russian missiles destroyed one of Ukraine’s largest electricity plants, located near Kyiv, and hit several power facilities as part of retaliatory strikes for Ukraine targeting Russian oil, gas, and energy infrastructure last week.

Massive fraud scandal. A Vietnamese court sentenced real estate tycoon Truong My Lan to death on Thursday for her role in the biggest financial fraud case in the country’s history. Lan was found guilty of embezzlement, bribery, and violating banking rules between early 2018 and October 2022. Lan’s lawyers said she will appeal the verdict.

Thursday’s decision was a key win for the Communist Party’s crackdown on corruption. The so-called Blazing Furnace campaign intensified in 2022 with Lan’s arrest, and in March of this year, then-Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong resigned for his alleged connection to the former head of Quang Ngai province, who was arrested earlier that month for corruption.

Barred political events. Mali banned all activities by political parties and “associations of a political nature” on Wednesday until further notice, citing the need to maintain public order. The announcement came amid calls for the West African nation to hold elections, which the ruling junta indefinitely postponed last September. A vote was originally scheduled for February, and the deadline to install a civilian-led government expired in March.

Mali’s military took control in August 2020—the first of eight coups in West and Central Africa. A second junta-led coup seized power in May 2021. Since then, Mali has found itself in various crises, as mercenary forces from Russia’s Wagner Group along with Malian troops committed atrocities against mostly unarmed civilians, jihadis targeted Malian ethnic groups, and Mali’s junta backed similar coup efforts across the region.

Odds and Ends

Cows and chickens in France are now legally free to moo and cluck as loudly as they please after French lawmakers enshrined a new law on Monday that protects countryside sounds and smells from complaints by annoyed neighbors. “Activities that existed before the complainant moved in [cannot be classified as] abnormal neighborhood disturbances,” French Justice Minister Éric Dupond-Moretti said. Whether that be a cockerel’s crow or the stench of manure, Dupond-Moretti said all sounds and smells are part of France’s heritage—and courts shouldn’t have to deal with “useless cases” against farmers just trying to do their jobs.

The post Israel Prepares for Iranian Attack in the Near Future appeared first on Foreign Policy.