Turkey’s Opposition Wins ‘Historic Victory’ in Local Elections

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at opposition victories in Turkey’s local elections, Israel targeting Iran’s consulate in Syria, and the Indonesian president-elect’s first foreign trip.

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Opposition Gains Across Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered its most severe electoral setback on Sunday since Erdogan came to power more than two decades ago. In nationwide local elections, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 35 out of 81 municipalities, including mayoral victories in Turkey’s five largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, and Antalya. This is a “historic victory,” the opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper wrote, with Sunday being the CHP’s best showing since Turkey’s 1977 general election.

Istanbul’s mayoral race proved to be Erdogan’s most significant upset. Incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu defeated the Erdogan-backed AKP candidate, former Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum, by around 10 percentage points, taking 51 percent of the vote. This marked the highest margin of victory for an Istanbul mayor in 40 years and helped solidify Imamoglu’s image as Erdogan’s chief opponent and a likely contestant in future presidential races.

“Istanbul stands as a beacon of hope, a testament to the resilience of democratic values in the face of rising authoritarianism,” Imamoglu wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

The CHP won nearly 38 percent of the national vote, whereas AKP support fell to 35 percent, down from 44 percent in 2019. This was the first time that Erdogan’s party lost the popular vote. In Ankara, Turkey’s capital, incumbent CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas captured 60.4 percent of the vote, far ahead of AKP opponent Turgut Altinok’s 32 percent. The CHP also won the southern city of Adiyaman, which was one of the worst-hit areas in last February’s devastating earthquake, and Kilis Province, a traditionally conservative stronghold that borders Syria.

“Unfortunately, we could not get the result we wanted and hoped for in the local election test,” Erdogan said on Monday. The right-wing leader, however, reiterated that “this is not an end for us but actually a turning point.”

Sunday’s local races highlighted growing public discontent with the ruling AKP. Many CHP supporters touted years of high inflation for their turn against Erdogan. Official figures estimate that inflation hit nearly 70 percent in February, though unofficial numbers predict the figure to be closer to 100 percent. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Monday that Turkey would continue hiking interest rates to try to curb inflation, a policy that Erdogan introduced after being reelected last May. Analysts also said the AKP’s defeat may hurt Erdogan’s efforts to adopt a new constitution that could extend his rule beyond 2028, when his term is set to expire.

Today’s Most Read

The World This Week

Tuesday, April 2: Senegalese President Macky Sall’s mandate is set to expire.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken concludes a two-day trip to Paris.

Pakistan holds Senate elections.

Wednesday, April 3: NATO foreign ministers begin a two-day meeting in Brussels.

Haiti’s state of emergency is set to expire.

Thursday, April 4: NATO recognizes the 75th anniversary of its formation.

Kuwait holds a general election.

One of France’s largest unions is expected to hold a public transportation strike.

Sunday, April 7: Poland holds local elections.

Monday, April 8: Venezuela begins hosting talks between the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels.

What We’re Following

Consulate attack. Israeli warplanes targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on Monday, killing at least seven people, including Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Zahedi’s deputy as well as five other Iranian officers were also killed, the IRGC said in a statement. Tehran’s Nour news agency confirmed that Iranian Ambassador to Syria Hossein Akbari was not harmed. Israel refused to comment on the strike.

“We consider this aggression to have violated all diplomatic norms and international treaties,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said. Akbari said Tehran’s response to the strike would be “at the same magnitude and harshness.”

Tehran backs Hamas as well as the Lebanon-based Islamist group Hezbollah in their fight against Israel, and since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has ramped up assaults on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Lebanon. Last Friday, Israel carried out its deadliest strikes on Syria’s Aleppo province in years, killing at least 53 people. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, seven Hezbollah members were among those killed. Hezbollah rocket attacks from Lebanon have killed around 12 Israeli troops and half a dozen Israeli civilians since the war began as well as caused the evacuation of more than 60,000 Israelis from northern Israel.

Prior warning allegations. Iran notified Russia of a possible “terrorist operation” ahead of the March 22 concert hall attack near Moscow, which killed more than 140 people, Reuters reported on Monday. “Days before the attack in Russia, Tehran shared information with Moscow about a possible big terrorist attack inside Russia that was acquired during interrogations of those arrested in connection with deadly bombings in Iran,” one source said, referring to twin bombings by the Islamic State-Khorasan that killed around 100 people in Kerman, Iran, in early January.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he had no information about the alleged Iranian warning. The United States also reportedly notified Russia of an impending attack, and the U.S. Embassy in Moscow publicly told U.S. citizens on March 7 to avoid large gatherings, including concerts, in Moscow for 48 hours due to an imminent threat from extremists. The Islamic State-Khorasan claimed responsibility for the March 22 Moscow attack, though Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains that Ukraine was involved. Kyiv has denied any participation.

Jakarta fosters Asia friendships. Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto visited Beijing on Monday for his first foreign trip since being elected in February. While there, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote “the development of closer Indonesia-China relations,” particularly regarding defense and economic cooperation. Beijing is Jakarta’s top trading partner, and Xi called Prabowo an “old friend of the Chinese people.”

Prabowo will continue his Asia trip with a stop in Japan on Tuesday and Wednesday. By seeking an audience with a key U.S. ally, experts believe that Prabowo will continue his predecessor’s policy of nonalignment regarding ongoing U.S.-China competition.

Odds and Ends

April Fools’ Day came early for Swiss travelers over the weekend. Ahead of the Easter holiday, Graubunden officials created fake traffic jams on local roads to discourage tourists from deviating from major highways, allowing residents to travel without the extra wait. One engineer said these barriers created an “artificial backlog” to dupe both drivers and navigation systems of existing road congestion. Don’t worry: Swiss chocolate deliveries were not impeded.

The post Turkey’s Opposition Wins ‘Historic Victory’ in Local Elections appeared first on Foreign Policy.