Highly sensitive intelligence documents leaked from the Pentagon show Ukraine’s air defense forces will be fully exhausted by May 23 without further reinforcement, which would give the Russian military a leg up in the 13-month-old war.
Missile stocks for Ukrainian Buk and S-300 surface-to-air defense systems — armaments that account for 89% of the country’s protection against Russia’s fighter and bomber aircraft — will be depleted by mid-April and May 3, respectively, according to one of the leaked documents reported by the New York Times.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air defenses that guard frontline forces will “be completely reduced” by May 23 unless reinforced, according to one paper dated Feb. 28.
Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesman Yurii Ihnat confirmed to the Times that Kyiv would “need many systems” of air defense to “fully replace” its depleted supply.
The Pentagon announced last week it would bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities with a $2.1 billion package of artillery and tank ammunition, mortars and rockets — though Washington has held off on sending jets to help Ukraine maintain aerial parity against Moscow.
The Biden administration also announced another $500 million in munitions and military equipment, including HIMARS rockets, heavy equipment transport vehicles, air defense interceptors and anti-armor systems.
The leaked documents were revealed ahead of an expected springtime military offensive by Ukraine meant to regain territory lost to Russia since the invasion began Feb. 24, 2022.
“It’s a pretty high-risk missile mission, you know, to fly into the heart of an air defense and then try to defeat it,” Gen. Philip Breedlove, the former supreme NATO commander, told the Times.
“So Russia still remains a bit fearful of flying into Ukraine because there’s still a fair amount of density of Ukrainian kit, and slowly, ever so slowly, way too slowly, the West is beginning to send even better kit and more kit.”
Russian attack planes have mostly stayed out of the fight after several were shot down by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles in the first weeks of the war. In recent months, jets like the Su-34 and Su-25 have focused on bombarding Ukrainian positions along the front line, as well as carrying out long-range attacks from either Russia or Belarus.
“They made the choice that they were not going to sacrifice their knights for their pawns,” Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, told the outlet.
“Instead, they’re going to throw those mobilized troops without proper air support, because they’re a more plentiful resource.”
The Kremlin has around 900 fighter jets, 485 of which are believed to be currently deployed against just 85 Ukrainian jets, according to another leaked Pentagon document.
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