Wars have unintended consequences.
Russia’s war in Ukraine seems to have sped up the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables.
This is a big deal. Most of us take for granted that we will enter a dark room and flick on the lights, that our homes will be warm in winter, that we will look out the window of a car and watch the world go by.
But what powers our lives is undergoing a huge change.
Consider three recent developments.
First, according to the International Energy Agency, an estimated $1.4 trillion poured into “clean energy” projects in 2022, a category that includes solar farms, batteries and electric vehicle charging stations. That’s more than ever before, and more than the money that poured into new oil and gas projects. Fatih Birol, the head of the agency, described the energy crisis spurred by the Russian invasion as “an accelerator for clean energy transitions.”
Second, BloombergNEF, a research firm, described this direction of change in a report published last week. Investments in low-carbon energy “reached parity” with capital aimed at expanding fossil fuels, it said.
And finally, the oil giant BP said this week that it expected the war in Ukraine would push countries to ramp up renewable energy projects for the sake of energy security, and that oil and gas demand could peak sooner than the company had anticipated just a year ago.
Spoiler alert: The shift away from fossil fuels isn’t happening fast enough to stay within relatively safe boundaries of climate change. For that to happen, a handful of big emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America will need to ramp up renewable energy projects. Financing those projects is more expensive in the countries of the global south than it would be in Europe and North America.
You’re going to hear a lot more going forward about the energy transition. It’s worth pausing for a minute today and looking at how big these changes are.
Energy security doesn’t mean fossil fuels anymore.
Nearly a year ago, right after the Russian invasion, the oil and gas industry made a full-throated pitch that it was key to energy security and affordability. For a while, there was lots of hand-wringing about whether the world’s climate goals would be sacrificed at the altar of energy security.
But since then, renewable projects have been ramped up, not just on climate grounds, but rather in the name of energy security. Renewables are increasingly affordable, once they’re built, and they offer security as well.
In Europe, wind and solar accounted for 22 percent of electricity generation last year, overtaking for the first time the share of gas (20 percent) and coal (16 percent), according to Ember, a research firm.
“In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels — of coal power, yes, but especially gas power,” said the Ember report, which published on Tuesday
Globally, renewable energy installations grew by 25 percent in 2022.
China’s investments exceeded, by a long shot, that of every other country.
Especially in the industrialized world, many people are going electric.
Never mind Tesla’s troubles. The electric car transition is in high gear.
In 2022, nearly 15 percent of all new car sales globally were electric, compared to 3 percent of all new car sales in 2019, according to the I.E.A. China dominates the market. More electric cars were sold in China than anywhere else. China’s biggest electric car and bus maker, BYD, has a higher global market share than Tesla.
At this pace, Birol said in an interview with Times journalists on Friday, by 2030, every second car sold in the biggest car markets — China, the United States and Europe — will be powered by electricity, not fossil fuels.
The banal heat pump became a hot item, especially in Europe this winter.
That’s a huge shift. For more than a hundred years, we have heated buildings with coal, oil, gas and wood. Globally, heat pump sales grew by 15 percent, according to the I.E.A. In some European countries, sales doubled in the first few months of 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We’re not moving fast enough, though.
These changes, accelerated by the Russian invasion, are improving the world’s “clean energy transition prospects,” Birol said, though it will not be enough to stay within what scientists consider safe boundaries: limiting average global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius between the mid-19th century and the end of this century.
That will need better financing terms for emerging economies.
I hear this often from diplomats and entrepreneurs trying to build renewable energy projects in countries like India, Brazil and South Africa. It’s still way too expensive to borrow money.
If you want to develop a solar project in Brazil or India, Birol said, you’re likely to pay three times more for financing than if you were to build the same project in Europe.
That has huge climate implications. The energy demands of these big emerging economies are growing fast. If they can’t finance renewables, they’ll turn to gas instead. Or worse, to coal.
“The biggest hurdle in front of us is the cost of capital,” Birol said.
From the Wirecutter
The New York Times product review website suggests 10 free, or nearly free, ways to save money on heat and hot water.
Essential news from The Times
On the industry payroll: The health risks of gas stoves are under close scrutiny. Meet the scientist who gets paid by fossil fuel interests to speak on their behalf.
Alaska mine project blocked: The E.P.A. will ban the disposal of industrial waste in the Bristol Bay watershed, killing plans for a mine that could have threatened a rich salmon fishery.
Climate start-ups shine: Tech workers and investors are flocking to start-ups that aim to combat climate change.
The earth moves: Regulators and scientists say fracking operations are causing a surge in seismic activity in Texas.
China’s slowdown: Oil and gas consumption fell in 2022 for the first time since 1990 as the government kept many cities under lockdown. A rebound is expected this year.
A less green Baghdad: A real estate boom in one of the largest cities in the Arab world is erasing the gardens that have helped to moderate temperature increases.
Unexpected fishing buddies: Bottlenose dolphins and Brazilian fishermen are cooperating. It means more fish for both.
From outside The Times
The Science Friday podcast interviewed Juan Pablo Culasso, a professional birder who is blind, about designing accessible forest trails in his native Colombia.
From Bloomberg: A prominent investment research firm assailed Gautam Adani, the Indian tycoon who made a fortune from coal. Adani has lost billions since.
Yale Climate Connections recommended twelve books with advice for people who want to take action on climate change.
The Albuquerque Journal reported on companies using oil drilling technology to tap New Mexico’s geothermal potential.
The Colorado River can no longer meet the water needs of an arid West. The Los Angeles Times is documenting the crisis in a series of articles, videos and podcasts.
Before you go: How to not be complicit
The Indigenous author and scientist Robin Wall Kimmerer is a messenger for ecological care. In an interview with The New York Times Magazine, she talks about how it’s possible for humans to live well and for nature to flourish, and about ways to push back at the powerful forces of destruction around us. “I can’t topple Monsanto, but I can plant an organic garden,” she said.
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Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward. Read past editions of the newsletter here.
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The post The Shift to Renewable Energy Is Speeding Up. Here’s How. appeared first on New York Times.
