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The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will both be facing backup quarterbacks as they play host to Wild Card Weekend games on Sunday. In the NFL playoff odds, that scenario is causing the line on both games to lengthen considerably. Buffalo is a 13.5-point pick over the Miami Dolphins, while the Bengals are the 8.5-point chalk facing the Baltimore Ravens.
When it comes to perplexing playoff teams, the Minnesota Vikings are at the top of the list. Despite a 13-4 record that won them the NFC North title, the Vikings finished the regular season with a negative point differential. Minnesota is a 3-point home pick over the New York Giants.
Which game is the best bet on Sunday’s three games of Wild Card Weekend action? We’ll look at that, plus some props to play and lay out a parlay worthy of consideration in the following story.
Bills -13.5 over Dolphins
Josh Allen was an ideal fit as quarterback for the Bills, because he lives for the cold weather. The forecast is calling for the thermometer to be at 30 degrees when the Bills are playing host to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET) and that’s right in Allen’s wheelhouse.
He’s 18-5 straight up playing in games when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder. Double threat Allen has passed for 5757 yards and 51 TDs in these games, while also rushing for 1235 yards and 10 TDs.
Meanwhile, the warm-weather Dolphins are 0-8 SU while playing when the mercury hits 40 or lower. Miami is 0-4 SU in the club’s last four road games and 2-3 against the spread over the past five away contests.
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The Dolphins covered in both regular-season games against the Bills, winning 21-19 at home and losing 32-29 at Buffalo as 7-point underdogs. However, each of those games were played with QB1 Tua Tagovailoa under center. Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) is out for this game, as is backup QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee, dislocated finger). Third-stringer Skylar Thompson will get the start. He’s 1-1 this season and did beat the New York Jets last week to get Miami into the playoffs. But Thompson’s passer rating is a mediocre 62.2.
Miami is a #7 seed. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs two years ago, the seventh-seeded teams are 0-4 SU and ATS.
Play These Props For Profit
The Baltimore Ravens will also be going to Cincinnati (8:15 p.m ET) and playing with their backup QB running the offense. QB1 Lamar Jackson (knee) is out. Second-stringer Tyler Huntley, out for last week’s regular-season finale against the Bengals due to a shoulder injury, is back for this game.
When it comes to prop wagering, it’s Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow that you want to be looking at, though. In two games against Baltimore this season, Burrow’s been held to one TD pass each time. In fact, in 10 of the past 11 games, the Ravens defense has limited the opposition QB to one or fewer in the TD pass department. Baltimore is limiting the opposition to 12.2 points per game since Week 13.
Take under 1.5 TD passes for Burrow at odds of +155.
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When the Vikings played host to the Giants in the regular season, All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson caught 13 passes during Minnesota’s 27-24 win. So did tight end T.J. Hockenson.
With the Giants focused on taking the deep ball threat away from Jefferson, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins took advantage of the underneath routes to Hockenson that this coverage made available. The big tight end’s longest reception in the game was just 16 yards.
That option figures to be there again in this game (4:40 p.m. ET). New York’s game plan will emphasize not letting Jefferson hurt them. Hockenson’s reception prop is set at 4.5 catches, so this one should be a gift. Play the over at -130.
A Bills-Dolphins Parlay Play
Buffalo should be able to pile up the points against a battered Miami team that limped to the finish line 1-5 and is 1-3 this season in games not started by Tagovailoa. That will also make for a potentially tasty same-game parlay on this contest.
Start with Allen’s over 1.5 TD passes prop at -170. In 10 career games against the Dolphins, Allen has never thrown for fewer than two TDs. He’s also tossed for a minimum of two scoring aerials in each of Buffalo’s last three games and five of the past six. That includes a four-TD pass performance when the Dolphins lost at Buffalo on Dec. 17.
For anytime TD scorer players, Bills TE Dawson Knox is turning into Fort Knox. Of late, betting on him to find the end zone is like printing money. Knox has caught a TD pass in four successive games. Three of those four TDs have come in home games and five of Knox’s last six TD catches all came in the red zone, so you know Allen is looking for Knox when the money is on the line. And he’s +200 to score an anytime TD.
Combine these two wagers into a same-game parlay and the payout on a $100 bet would be $459.
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