In a close race, the presidential election could be decided by an unlikely spot: Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which includes Omaha and most of its suburbs.
If the race is decided there, Joseph R. Biden Jr. appears to have the advantage, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. He leads President Trump by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Unlike most states, Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes by congressional district: The statewide winner receives two votes, and the winner of each district receives one. And while one electoral vote isn’t much, it could prove decisive in an increasingly plausible set of circumstances.
Nebraska’s Second District would give Mr. Biden exactly 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win, if he held the states that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 and flipped Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. It would allow him to win the presidency without Pennsylvania or Florida.
The district has long loomed as a potential vulnerability for the president. It is traditionally Republican, but Mr. Trump carried it by only two points in 2016. The district was even closer than familiar battleground states like Arizona or North Carolina.
Its demographics have made it an even more plausible pickup opportunity for Mr. Biden. It’s relatively white, metropolitan and well educated, and national polls routinely show Mr. Biden running ahead of Mrs. Clinton’s performance among all three of those groups.
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