Forecasters on Friday morning were trying to pin down the exact path of a winter storm that could deliver a little — or quite a lot — of snow to the Northeast this weekend. People in a broad stretch of the East Coast, from Washington to New England, were watching closely.
Winter storm forecasts can be notoriously fickle to pin down too early, and on Thursday afternoon, Ashton Robinson Cook with the Weather Prediction Center said that this storm’s details remained “tricky” and “unpredictable.”
Here’s how things look so far, and when you can expect them to become clearer.
Key Things to Know
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The Saturday pivot: The storm could graze the Northeast, or it could deliver a direct hit. Forecasters won’t have a firm grasp on the path until the storm system actually organizes off the coast on Saturday, or even early Sunday morning.
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Wind and waves: This isn’t just a snow story. A path closer to the coast would bring widespread and potentially damaging winds and coastal flooding, particularly to New England.
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The strengthening factor: Meteorologists are watching the potential paths of two distinct energy systems high in the atmosphere; if they align perfectly near the coast, the storm will most likely strengthen rapidly.
The Scenarios
The best-case scenario (if you’re sick of winter): a total miss.
A total miss is a possibility, but it’s an outlier.
Dr. Robinson Cook said that it was possible the system would miss the United States completely and be whisked out to sea. That would happen if it formed too far east of the coast or failed to intensify as expected. That could leave the East Coast entirely dry.
Total snow in this scenario: None.
The more likely scenario for now: a dusting.
The more likely scenario is light precipitation, probably light snow, Dr. Robinson Cook said. On Thursday, the majority of the weather computer models were in agreement that there would be some wintry precipitation, but the overarching theme was light amounts stretching up the coast between Washington and Boston.
There may even be a light rain that changes over to snow, he said.
Total snow in this scenario: A couple of inches Sunday into early Monday.
The worst-case scenario: a blockbuster.
Some of the models that forecasters use are showing “a whole lot more snow,” Dr. Robinson Cook said.
But he offered a dose of skepticism: “We don’t really put a lot of stock in the solutions that are giving us a blockbuster system quite yet.”
If the storm were to strengthen, it could intensify rapidly over the 24 hours it is nearest the coast. If so, the snowfall amounts on Sunday could pile up quickly — but even in this scenario, the storm’s center would have to track in a precise line just offshore, but not too far.
Total snow in this scenario: Kind of a lot!
What You Can Watch For
Through Friday evening, forecasters will be looking for trends in the model data — essentially, for the different computer simulations to start converging on a single path and strength.
Dr. Robinson Cook advised against falling for “worst-case” maps on social media. “Get your weather from official sources,” he said.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
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