When a South Korean court sentenced a former president to life imprisonment this week, convicting him of masterminding an insurrection, it immediately removed one cloud hanging over the country’s current leader, Lee Jae Myung.
Anything less than a conviction would have been a political disaster for Mr. Lee, who was a political opponent of his convicted predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol. If Mr. Yoon had been cleared of the insurrection charge, he and his hard-right followers would have challenged the legitimacy of the impeachment — and by extension, Mr. Lee’s election, which it had made possible.
Instead, the court’s ruling on Thursday lightens the political burden on Mr. Lee by justifying the impeachment, which his party spearheaded. It also brings South Korea a sense of closure to the political turmoil and restores a measure of trust in the system.
Almost certainly, Mr. Lee will have a freer hand as he tries to move beyond the drama and toward other priorities. His party already has a majority in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament. About 60 percent of the South Koreans approve of his performance as president, according to surveys. If his party wins a landslide victory in the June elections of city mayors and provincial governors, as many analysts predict, it will make Mr. Lee more confident in pushing his domestic agenda, like curbing housing prices.
But Mr. Lee’s toughest challenge remains how to heal the social fracture in his nation, deepened by political tribalism and differences over ties with North Korea and China, that was exposed by Mr. Yoon’s abrupt martial law declaration in December 2024.
“Now that the legal judgment has come down on who’s right and wrong about Yoon’s martial law, it’s time for Lee to leave behind political strife and push more confidently for national unity,” said Kang Won-taek, a professor of political science at Seoul National University.
With or without Mr. Lee’s efforts, political polarization is still intense, fueled by hyper-partisanship, internet-generated disinformation and the rise of a far-right movement. Outside the courthouse on Thursday, rival camps shouted “death” for Mr. Yoon and “prison” for Mr. Lee.
Mr. Lee has vowed to heal the divided country and not to indulge in political revenge. But he also promised to “eliminate the insurrection forces,” whom his supporters cast as enemies of democracy.
Mr. Yoon’s guilty verdict could dim the prospects for a small yet persistent army of Yoon supporters who have been rallying in downtown Seoul, calling for his reinstatement, however unrealistic that may be, some analysts said.
But others warned it could aggravate the political polarization. In a message released to his followers through his lawyers on Friday, Mr. Yoon called himself a victim of “political revenge” and said, “Our fight is not over.”
Jang Dong-hyeok, the leader of Mr. Yoon’s former bloc, the People Power Party, on Friday expressed “sadness” at Mr. Yoon’s conviction. He refused to cut ties with him or his followers, and it is still unclear what path the party will take in regards to Mr. Yoon’s outraged supporter base.
“Yoon’s far-right followers will become angrier and more vindictive,” said Choi Jin, director of the Institute for Presidential Leadership in Seoul. “The People Power Party, in order to compensate for its weakened position, will likely escalate an all-consuming political offensive against President Lee.”
Mr. Lee must reckon with the hard-liners within his own party, as well. They were angry that Mr. Yoon had escaped the death penalty they had demanded. And they vowed to enact a new law curtailing the president’s right to pardon criminals convicted of treason or insurrection — a potentially potent political tool that has fallen into Mr. Lee’s hands.
Mr. Lee has been silent on Mr. Yoon’s conviction except for his call on the military on Friday to “eliminate the remnants of the illegal martial law,” a reference to officers who may have supported Mr. Yoon.
Moving ahead, Mr. Lee is likely to push harder on his domestic agenda. He has sought punitive measures against news outlets for spreading what he characterizes as malicious falsehoods. He wants South Koreans to concentrate less of their wealth in real-estate and more in stocks, and wants to change real estate taxes to make homes more affordable, especially for the newly married.
Mr. Lee’s government has also launched investigations into Protestant churches — long a powerful force in Korean politics, and a major source of support for his predecessor — to cut what he has condemned as corrupt ties between churches and politicians.
Mr. Lee has proved pragmatic in negotiating a trade deal with the Trump administration and managing relations with his country’s neighbors, China and Japan. Despite repeated snubs from North Korea, he is trying to rebuild trust with the North, taking unilateral measures to ease tensions along the border.
But the success of his policy endeavors will depend on whether he can learn lessons from Mr. Yoon’s downfall and appear as more of a uniter.
“It’s the president who holds the key to building a cooperative relationship with the opposition,” Mr. Choi said.
Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea.
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