Thanksgiving is fast approaching, and so is one of the year’s busiest travel periods. Weather forecasters said that a series of storms moving across the country could complicate travel, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow in the days leading up to the holiday.
Most of the storms will be “quick hitters,” said Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, but a couple of them bring the risk of flash flooding. The first is expected to track from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Friday through Saturday.
“Especially down through places like Texas and Oklahoma,” he said. “And also downstream into the Southeast and southern Ohio Valley.”
A second storm a few days later is forecast to follow a similar path. Starting out from the Southwest, it is expected to move east with rain across the southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, before spreading into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week. Behind it, a plunge of cold air is expected to drop temperatures to below average across much of the northern United States and the Midwest by Thanksgiving.
Here is a breakdown by region of what to expect in the coming days, including the weather outlook for Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City.
The Northeast
Friday and the weekend:
Mr. Kleebauer said that “it doesn’t look half bad” for the Northeast, with mostly dry and calm conditions expected. A storm system moving through Canada may brush past areas of northern New England and bring a few rain or snow showers.
However, a storm system affecting the Mid-Atlantic could push a little rain into southern New York State through to southern New England, potentially including New York City at the start of the weekend. “Appreciable rainfall” is not likely, he said.
Early next week:
Another system coming out of the southern Plains on Monday night is expected to move northeast, increasing the chance of rain and mountain snow from Tuesday. Mr. Kleebauer said it was still too early to determine whether it would linger into Thanksgiving Day, as the timing depends on the speed of the storm and how quickly it clears.
“Some guidance has it out of there by Wednesday, so it could end up being a pretty nice Thanksgiving Day,” he said. “The worst-case scenario may be a dreary start, but clearing out during the day.”
He added that northern New England might see rain linger, but much of the Northeast is expected to have a cool and breezy Thanksgiving afternoon, with some lake-effect snow possible downwind of the Great Lakes.
For the Macy’s parade on Thanksgiving Day, Mr. Kleebauer said there was a chance of rain early on, but it should move through quickly, leaving a fine day in New York City.
The Mid-Atlantic
Friday and the weekend:
A storm system from the Plains is expected to move east across the region from Thursday night, bringing rain to parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Mr. Kleebauer said the heaviest rainfall was expected late Friday into early Saturday, especially across the southern half of Pennsylvania, as well as Maryland, Delaware, Northern Virginia and West Virginia. Dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday.
Early next week:
Like the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic will see a storm arriving from the southern Plains, spreading rain across the region.
The rain is expected in two rounds: The first arrives early Tuesday and clears by Tuesday night; the second moves in early Wednesday and lasts into early Thanksgiving morning. Mr. Kleebauer said most of the rainfall should be light.
The Midwest
Friday into next week:
Aside from a little rain across the northern Plains, much of the Midwest is expected to experience dry, pleasant conditions through the weekend and into Thanksgiving Day.
The bigger story, Mr. Kleebauer said, will be cold weather.
“There’s going to be a push of some pretty cold air funneling into the country, starting on Tuesday,” he said. “And we’re going to see temperatures tumble pretty substantially.”
Daytime temperatures across the Midwest are expected to fall into the 20s, and possibly the teens near the Canadian border.
“Thanksgiving morning is currently showing single digit lows up across the northern tier, like in North Dakota,” he said. “And the 20s spanning all the way down through the central Plains and even into places like Chicago, Milwaukee and in and around the Great Lakes.”
With the cold air in place next week, there may also be the chance of snow squalls — sudden, intense bursts of wind and heavy snow that drastically reduce visibility — though Mr. Kleebauer said it was too early to know if that would occur.
The Southeast
Friday and the weekend:
As a storm system moves north from Texas, showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast, including Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina from Friday through Saturday. A mostly dry day is expected on Sunday.
Early next week:
A storm system originating from the Southwest is expected to move out of Texas, drawing in moisture from the Gulf that could spark rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Downpours are expected over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Monday, and across areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas from Wednesday through to Thanksgiving morning.
From Sunday through Tuesday morning, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas of central and northern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and the far west of Tennessee as its third-highest risk for flash flooding.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, with some areas potentially setting new records. Nighttime temperatures may remain 10 to 20 degrees above average.
The Southwest
Friday and the weekend:
Friday and Saturday look largely dry across the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and central and northern Texas on Sunday into early Monday.
Early next week:
After that system clears east, Mr. Kleebauer said early next week would be “nice and clear” for the Southwest, including Thanksgiving. Temperatures are also expected to be “mild to warm” with highs in the 70s to 80s for Thanksgiving.
The West
Friday and the weekend:
A system bringing rain to Southern California on Friday is expected to clear by Saturday morning. Other than that, Mr. Kleebauer said there was “no chance” of any rain for California for the rest of the weekend.
The Pacific Northwest is expected to remain mostly dry and pleasant until a system moves into Washington and Oregon by Sunday, bringing rain and mountain snow.
Early next week:
California is expected to stay dry and calm through Thanksgiving, while the Northwest will see rain and mountain snow extend into the Rockies.
Another system is expected by Wednesday afternoon, bringing additional rain and high-elevation snow.
Mr. Kleebauer said the biggest concern would be mountain snow through the cascades of Washington.
However, drier conditions are expected for Thanksgiving Day.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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