Ukrainian and Russian officials wrapped up a new round of U.S.-mediated peace talks on Wednesday after a second day of discussions that lasted just two hours, a brief session that suggested little progress was achieved and underscored that a deal remains elusive as fighting rages on the battlefield.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who was not present at the talks, said on a social media group with reporters that “the negotiations were not easy.” He noted that while the two sides had essentially reached an agreement on technical issues, such as how to monitor a cease-fire, they remained far apart on political issues, including the fate of Ukrainian-held territory in the east of the country that Russia wants as a price for ending the war.
Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide who led the Russian negotiating team in Geneva also acknowledged the challenges, telling Russian media that the talks “were tough but businesslike.”
The statements marked a clear contrast with two earlier rounds of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States in Abu Dhabi this month, which negotiators had hailed as constructive and productive.
Those discussions appeared to focus on technical matters such as mechanisms for monitoring the cease-fire and prisoner-of-war exchanges, which analysts say are easier to agree on. By contrast, this week’s talks were expected to center on territorial issues that have proved one of the main obstacles to a peace deal so far.
Ukrainian officials had also voiced concern about the return of Mr. Medinsky, known for his hard-line stance, to lead the Russian negotiating team in Geneva after he was absent in Abu Dhabi. Kyiv interpreted the move as a sign that Moscow was not ready to compromise. “We can state that Russia is trying to drag out negotiations that could already have reached the final stage,” Mr. Zelensky said on Monday after the first day of talks.
Mr. Zelensky has signaled openness to compromising on the territorial issue, suggesting a demilitarized zone in the eastern Donetsk region that Moscow wants, where both Ukrainian and Russian troops would pull back from an equal portion of territory. But he has also made clear that any territorial compromise would come only after Ukraine secures firm security guarantees from its Western allies, above all the United States.
That is why the question of territory and security guarantees are tightly interconnected, analysts say. Whichever is resolved first could determine which of the warring sides gains the upper hand in the negotiations, they add.
“The sequencing matters a lot,” said Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at Rasmussen Global, a research organization.
“The U.S. wants Ukraine to make territorial concessions first, and only then would Washington give Kyiv security guarantees,” Mr. Nedelcu said. “This risks to put Kyiv in a trap. Russia would use the pause to launch another attack.”
That concern is particularly acute for the portion of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. The area is heavily fortified, so surrendering it, or even withdrawing from it as part of a demilitarized zone, could give Russia a strategic foothold to resume attacks.
“But if you have security guarantees first,” Mr. Nedelcu added, “it gives Ukrainians bargaining power at the negotiating table and assures Kyiv of international protection to deter another invasion.”
In that case, Kyiv could negotiate from a position of confidence, knowing its postwar security would be protected. Strong guarantees might even persuade Ukrainians to accept territorial concessions, an idea that is beginning to gain traction among the local public.
Mr. Zelensky has said the United States and Ukraine have agreed on postwar security guarantees, though details have not been disclosed. European diplomats in Kyiv remain skeptical that the guarantees are fully locked in. That has raised concerns that the talks in Switzerland, by focusing on territory while security commitments are not yet in place, may be premature.
Mr. Zelensky hinted at this concern in a social media post this week.
“Our American friends, they are preparing security guarantees. But they said — first this swap of territories, or something like that, and then security guarantees,” he wrote on X. “I think — first, security guarantees. Second, we will not give up our territories because we are ready for compromise. What kind of compromise are we ready for? Not for the compromise that gives Russia the opportunity to recover quickly and come again and occupy us.”
Nataliya Vasilyeva contributed reporting.
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people.
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