CNN’s chief polling expert says Donald Trump would get wiped in an electoral rematch against Kamala Harris.
Harry Enten, the network’s chief data correspondent, told CNN News Central host John Berman on Tuesday that if the 2024 election were to happen today, Harris would defeat Trump in a landslide.
“Regrets of some folks—had a few,” Enten, 37, said.
He explained that in April 2025, a polled redo of the election between Trump and Harris showed Harris winning by a point, not Trump.
“Look at where we are now, according to an NBC News SurveyMonkey poll: She wins it by—get this—eight points,” he said. “A massive shift from what we saw in November of 2024 when Donald Trump won by a point.”
“And I will note that this sample was weighted to the 2024 result in which Donald Trump won by a point, but yet, Kamala Harris in this weighted sample,” he continued, “She wins by eight amongst the sample that voted for Trump by one.”
Berman noted that, unfortunately for Harris, winning the 2024 election in 2026 counts for nothing.
“The fact is, the 2024 election is good, gone, goodbye,” Enten agreed. “But it has a massive impact, this voter sentiment, on what may happen later this year.”
Enten explained that 2024 Harris voters voted for Democratic congressional candidates by a considerably higher margin than Trump voters did for GOP candidates, by a measure of 89 points to Republicans’ 83.
“This means that the Democratic base that voted for Kamala Harris is sticking with those congressional Democratic candidates to a much greater degree than those Trump voters are sticking with the Republican candidates for Congress,” he said. “Trump voters are not sticking by the Republicans as much as the Harris voters are sticking by the Democrats.”
Enten then moved to address those who didn’t vote in 2024, noting that these voters are projected to support Democrats by a whopping 16 percentage points in the upcoming midterms. In 2024, those who didn’t vote in 2020 voted for Trump by a margin of seven points.
“When you put all of this together, what do we get? It’s not just the House, it’s the Senate as well,” Enten said.
The data expert explained that the Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate have doubled from where it was a year ago—from 19 percent to 40, citing Kalshi prediction market odds.
President Donald Trump, 79, has been “setting new records” when it comes to disappointing approval ratings, the data guru said on Monday.
Citing a collection of recent approval surveys, Enten found that Trump’s net approval rating is -22. For comparison, Trump’s approval rating at this point during his first term was -12, while former President Joe Biden’s was -13.
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