Week 11 delivered exactly what we hoped for. Miami’s overtime interception delivered a sloppy win in Madrid, Bryce Young’s 448-yard breakout for Carolina powered an overtime upset, and Jacksonville’s suffocating defense turned its win over the Los Angeles Chargers into an easy under from the start. Let’s keep it going for a third week in a row.
This week, the Thursday night game will be played at a venue that rarely hosts shootouts. On Sunday, Cincinnati draws an opponent that offers a level of consistency that the home team hasn’t been able to find all season. Detroit returns to its controlled indoor environment, where its offense typically looks far different than it does outdoors. And later in the afternoon, Dallas steps into a spot where it historically has been at its most dependable.
Best bets record: 18-24
Philadelphia Eagles (-3½) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Cowboys +3½
No quarterback in the NFL dominates his division quite like Dak Prescott. Against NFC East teams, Prescott and the Cowboys are 31-12-1 against the spread, covering by almost seven points per contest, per TruMedia. He also has been on the winning side against division opponents at home in 18 straight games.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is dealing with a key injury. Right tackle Lane Johnson suffered a foot injury Sunday, and while it is not expected to be season-ending, he could be headed to injured reserve. According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson is the ninth-rated offensive tackle of 2025, and the top-rated right tackle, after allowing just seven total pressures (with no sacks) over 251 snaps defending the pass rush.
Buffalo Bills (-5½) at Houston Texans
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: Under 43½ points (The pick is Bills -5½, but it is not a best bet)
We don’t see as many points scored in Houston as you might expect. Over the past five seasons, plus this one, the under is 55-38-1 at NRG Stadium, per TruMedia. Unders are 10-2-1 since 2024. That’s partly a testament to Houston’s defense, which this year ranks third in Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average, a metric that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Houston also will still be without star quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Houston is the best defense Buffalo has faced this season. The Bills have played just one other defense in the top half of the league, and that was Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They scored 44 points, but some of that was enabled by Bucs turnovers. Expect a more modest output in this one.
New England Patriots (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Patriots -7
The Patriots probably are not as good as their record reflects, but the Bengals are not good — period. Joe Flacco is coming off his worst outing since joining Cincinnati, and he is the NFL’s 22nd-best passer per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating. His raw expected points added per dropback, per TruMedia, puts him 30th out of 34 qualified passers. My power ratings have this at Patriots -8½ after factoring in the Bengals’ home-field advantage.
Speaking of which, Cincinnati has been outscored by an average of 17 points at home in non-garbage-time situations, per TruMedia.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Over 49½ points (The pick is Lions -10½, but it is not a best bet)
The Lions are coming off a 16-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles at cold and windy Lincoln Financial Field. This week, they are back in the friendly confines of Ford Field, where the domed stadium is kept roughly at room temperature.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff should rebound from one of the worst starts of his career. Since joining the Lions in 2021, his passer rating when playing indoors is 106.2, good enough to be among the top five passers in the NFL. When he’s playing outside, it drops to 94.0, roughly the same as an average quarterback. The Lions have averaged 33.5 points at home this season compared with 26.3 points on the road. That could go even higher against the Giants, who are the fourth-worst defensive team of 2025 per Schatz’s DVOA.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to occur on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Chiefs -3½
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Bears -3
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-14½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jets +14½
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Packers -6
Seattle Seahawks (-12½) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Titans +12½
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2½) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jaguars -2½
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Browns +3
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Saints -1½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Rams -6
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN
Pick: Panthers +7
The post Best NFL bets for Week 12: Cowboys will test the Eagles appeared first on Washington Post.
