When President Trump threatened last month to strike Iran if its government did not agree to a deal to curb its nuclear program, the Pentagon was in a poor position to back him up.
The 30,000 to 40,000 American troops scattered around the Middle East, including at eight permanent bases, were low on air defenses to protect them from expected retaliation.
The additional fighter jets necessary to conduct the kind of sweeping operation Mr. Trump spoke of were idling at American bases in Europe, and as far away as the United States. Much of the military hardware in the Middle East accumulated over 20 years of war, and even during the U.S. campaign against Yemeni Houthis last year, had since departed the region.
So senior national security officials made a case to the president to hold off while the Pentagon rebuilt its ability to attack and, even more important, to defend in the 11 countries that could be vulnerable to Iranian retaliation, according to three U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
“President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran,” said Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman. “He listens to a variety of perspectives on any given issue, but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security.”
Now, as Mr. Trump weighs his military options if diplomacy fails to resolve disputes with Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the Pentagon is using the time to finish building up the “armada” the president said was heading toward the country.
So far, that armada includes eight guided missile destroyers that can shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles, land-based ballistic missile defense systems and submarines that can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets in Iran.
Over the past three weeks, as diplomats and leaders in Israel, Arab countries, Iran and the United States have begun talks, the Pentagon has been preparing for war. The platforms it is putting in place not only have offensive capability, military officials said, but also defensive capability, because Iran is likely to strike back.
A senior military official described the process as putting one’s house in order.
Mr. Trump initially said he was trying to defend Iranian demonstrators who began challenging the authoritarian government late last year. But he has backed away from “when he said the U.S. was ‘locked and loaded’ to protect the protesters,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University.
But more recently, his reasons for targeting Iran have shifted back to its nuclear program, which Iranian officials insist is for civilian purposes, and not to produce weapons.
“He threatened war before the U.S. military was ready,” Mr. Nasr said. “But having put war on the table and then having to back off to give buildup time, he also alerted Iran that war was coming, and gave it time to make its own retaliatory threats more credible.”
Senior administration officials said Mr. Trump had not decided whether he would strike Iran.
After meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at the White House on Wednesday, Mr. Trump wrote on social media after that “there was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue.”
The options Mr. Trump has been weighing include military action targeting Iran’s nuclear program and ability to launch ballistic missiles, according to three U.S. officials. He is also considering options that would include sending American commandos to go after certain Iranian military targets, the officials said.
But before the Pentagon can do any of this, it must be better prepared, the officials said.
That means moving air defense systems to bases in the region that house American troops — not just at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran struck last year in retaliation for American strikes on its nuclear facilities — but also at bases in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
“Defensively, we’ve got to make sure, before we do anything” that American defenses are in order, said Gen. Joseph Votel, the former commander of United States Central Command. “So we are prepared for the inevitable response that comes back against U.S. interests or against our partners.”
In his threat last month, Mr. Trump characterized the buildup in the Middle East as bigger than the one in Venezuela last year, which led to an Army Delta Force raid to seize President Nicolás Maduro in early January. Certainly, there are similarities, with each marshaling thousands of troops at sea and bases on land, and each building its strike force around an aircraft carrier.
In the case of Iran, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, accompanied by three warships equipped with Tomahawk missiles, is at the center of a dozen warships in the region, including in the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Iranian drones have been tracking the carrier, and a Navy fighter jet shot one down on Feb. 3 after U.S. officials said it had approached the Lincoln.
The carrier’s stealthy F-35 fighters and F/A-18 attack planes are well within striking distance of targets in Iran. The United States has also sent more than a dozen additional F-15E attack planes to the region, according to U.S. officials.
On Thursday, the crew of a second aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, was told they would leave the Caribbean, where the ship joined the U.S. operation last month to seize Mr. Maduro, and deploy to the Middle East as part of Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign against Iran.
B-2s and other long-range bombers based in the United States that could strike targets in Iran remain on a higher-than-usual alert status, according to a senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The Pentagon heightened the alert status nearly a month ago, when Mr. Trump requested options to respond to the Iranian government’s bloody crackdown on protests.
Military analysts say other tipoffs for potential major operations usually include the number of aerial refueling tankers in the Mideast or nearby, and the number of EA-18 Growlers, radar-jamming planes that can escort bombers. There are Growlers on the Lincoln, and Central Command recently flew some to a base in Jordan.
Flight tracking data suggests that the United States is also moving additional aircraft, including refueling planes and reconnaissance aircraft, closer to or into the region.
Analysts say another tipoff to the seriousness of any offensive planning would be if the Navy were to move a ballistic-missile submarine that typically operates in the Mediterranean into the Red Sea or, more likely, to Arabian Sea, where it would be best positioned to strike targets in Iran.
The Navy subs can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, adding substantial firepower to the region. Unlike its ships, the Navy typically does not disclose the locations of its submarines. But a submarine moving from the Mediterranean to waterways to the east would have to surface going through the Suez Canal and would be visible to ship trackers. That has not happened yet.
In addition to its offensive arsenal, the Pentagon is dispatching more Patriot and THAAD air defenses to the region to help protect troops there from retaliatory strikes by Iranian short- and medium-range missiles.
Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired four-star Marine general and former head of U.S. Central Command, said Iran’s military and political leaders would take any American buildup seriously because of Mr. Trump’s track record: bombing three Iranian nuclear sites last June and killing a top Iranian general, Qassim Suleimani, in January 2020.
“The Iranians fear Trump because he killed Suleimani and he hit their nuclear sites,” General McKenzie said in an interview. “They’re scared of him because he takes direct action.”
Helene Cooper is a Pentagon correspondent for The Times. She was previously an editor, diplomatic correspondent and White House correspondent.
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