Attorney General Pam Bondi’s epic meltdown in front of lawmakers has nearly doubled her odds of being the next person fired from President Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
The 60-year-old began the week with a 37 percent chance of leaving the Trump administration by year’s end, according to Polymarket. Immediately after she exploded at lawmakers pressing for answers on the Epstein files on Wednesday, her odds spiked to as high as 62 percent.
Bondi’s odds fell back to 54 percent by Wednesday morning. That still puts her ahead of FBI Director Kash Patel (49 percent) and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (48 percent), who have also had their fair share of embarrassing moments this term.
Things appear equally grim for Bondi on Kalshi prediction markets.
Bondi’s odds of being the next Cabinet member fired by President Donald Trump rose 11 percentage points from Monday, making her the clear favorite to be axed at 23 percent. She is trailed on the site by Noem (16 percent) and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (15 percent), who swears he is innocent despite visiting Jefferey Epstein’s infamous Caribbean island for what he described as a family vacation.
The former Florida attorney general has been criticized for her handling of the Epstein files for most of MAGA 2.0, with critics, including Kentucky’s Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, accusing her of trying to suppress information that may implicate powerful people, including Trump.
Bondi’s odds of leaving the administration by 2027 were as low as 21 percent in November. However, now even MAGA diehards like the always-gun-toting Kyle Rittenhouse and the right-wing radio host Erick Erickson are calling for her to resign or be fired.
Likely keeping odds relatively low has been Trump’s reluctance to fire members of his Cabinet and senior staff at the rate he did during his first presidential term, when 20 members were either fired or pressured into resigning. The Fulcrum reported that 92 percent of the 65 people on Trump’s 2017-2021 “A Team” left their appointed offices by the end of his term.
This time around, the 79-year-old Trump stuck by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth through the disaster that was Signalgate. He has stood by Patel through multiple high-profile botched arrests and with Noem through the two killings of American citizens by federal agents under her command. He even resisted ditching his Chief of Staff Susie Wiles after she embarrassed the White House in a series of interviews with Vanity Fair.
Still, Trump became a household name by brutally firing people on live TV—and those wagering on prediction markets expect he will eventually get back to his old ways, especially as his approval rating continues to tank in year two of MAGA 2.0.
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