A strong storm is expected to move across the United States this weekend, bringing with it the risk of widespread and at times heavy rain to much of the South. Snow is also possible in parts of the Northeast, forecasters said, although as of Thursday, just how much, if any, remained uncertain.
The uncertainty comes from how much the storm will interact with colder weather patterns across the northern states as it moves into areas of the Southeast on Sunday, said Frank Pereira, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. Some of the uncertainty is also tied to temperatures that are beginning to ease after weeks of brutal cold in the East, which could mean parts of the Northeast are spared of any significant winter weather.
“There are a couple of models that bring the storm to the north to areas of Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and if that does occur and there’s enough cold air holding on, there could be some snow,” Mr. Pereira said. “But right now it looks like the most impactful aspect of the storm could be heavy rain.”
Here is what forecasters know (and don’t know) so far
What is almost certain: A storm is expected to move into the Southwestern United States before spreading quickly into the south-central states by Saturday. From there, rain is expected to spread across the southern Plains, the mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast through Sunday.
What remains uncertain: From Sunday into Monday, winter weather is possible if the storm shifts farther north and interacts with colder air already in place. If that happens, snow could develop over parts of Virginia through Pennsylvania. On Thursday, forecasters said that weather models suggested the storm would remain over the milder South and clear quickly offshore, making significant winter weather in parts of the Mid-Atlantic less likely.
Forecasters said that rainfall was expected to be heavy at times, especially over areas of the southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley. While it will be beneficial in some places, totals are expected to be higher than normal, and because multiple rounds of rain could move over the same areas, there is an increased risk of flooding, especially in sensitive burn scar areas.
In preparation, the Weather Prediction Center placed parts of northeast Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, southern Missouri, northwest Alabama and western areas of Tennessee and Kentucky under its lowest-level “marginal” risk for excessive rainfall from Friday through Sunday. A higher level, a two on a four-point scale, was in place for the far northeast of Texas, Arkansas, the far north of Louisiana, northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee for the weekend. Forecasters said the highest rainfall totals, of up to four inches, were expected for these areas from Friday morning through Sunday morning.
A low-level risk for flash floods was also in place across much of the Southeast from Sunday through Monday.
Despite uncertainties in the forecast — especially around the potential for winter weather in the Northeast — all weather models currently show the storm clearing away from the East Coast on Monday, Mr. Pereira said.
“And then things should be pretty dry across much of the Southern and Eastern U.S. by the time we get into the early part of next week,” he said.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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