India’s Republic Day commemorates the adoption of a constitution that promised justice, liberty and equality. Yet this year, another presence hovered over the grand parade that celebrated the holiday on Jan. 26, even in absence: President Donald Trump.
His return to power has unsettled Europe’s assumptions about transatlantic stability and accelerated its search for reliable partners. Trump’s attempt to seize Greenland shows that the Europeans won’t be spared in his quest to control the Western Hemisphere. Consequently, India has taken on new strategic importance.
I was in Brussels in the days leading up to Republic Day, speaking with policymakers and journalists as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prepared to travel to New Delhi as the chief guest for the Republic Day festivities. In her public remarks, von der Leyen spoke of renewing faith in multilateralism in a fractured world and strengthening ties with the world’s largest democracy.
For decades, Europe’s foreign policy has rested on a comfortable alignment with the United States. That certainty has frayed. In Brussels, policymakers speak openly about a future in which Europe must rely less on Washington and more on a network of strategic partnerships.
India sits at the center of that recalibration. It is the world’s most populous country, a fast-growing economy and a pivotal Indo-Pacific power. The historic free-trade deal reached last month by India and the European Union is not simply about tariffs or supply chains. It is about anchoring Europe in Asia when global alignments are shifting. The agreement with the E.U. has arrived at a fortuitous moment for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His posture projecting India as a rising moral and strategic leader has faced criticism at home, with opposition parties arguing that the nation’s foreign policy has yielded diminishing returns.
Meanwhile, India and the U.S. have deepened their own trade relationship. After almost a year of threatening India with tariffs, Trump announced on Feb. 2 a trade deal reducing the 50 percent tariff on goods imported from India to 18 percent. Trump said in a Truth Social post that India would commit to purchasing $500 billion worth of American goods. He also wrote that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”
Indian parliamentarians honored Modi with garlands, praising him for the historic trade deal, although there was no clarity on a blueprint for the agreement.
India is yet to respond to Trump’s claims that the country will stop buying Russian oil as part of the deal. Thirty-three percent of India’s oil imports in 2025 came from Russia, prompting the Indian opposition to ask if India has traded its autonomy to Trump.
E.U. foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas reminded her counterparts in New Delhi that ties between Russia and India still “cast a shadow” over cooperation between the E.U. and India.
For Europe, the urgency suddenly looked less theoretical. If Washington and New Delhi draw closer economically and strategically, Brussels risks being left on the margins of one of the most consequential relationships of the 21st century.
Seen in that light, von der Leyen’s presence at Republic Day was not merely ceremonial diplomacy; it was strategic timing. Europe is not only seeking partners beyond Washington but also trying to ensure it is not sidelined as the U.S. and India bolster their alignment, even if that consolidation unfolds on Trump’s terms.
And yet, this courtship comes with a notable silence. Like Viktor Orban of Hungary, Modi is associated with a rise in the kind of right-wing national populism and ethno-nationalism that the E.U. supposedly deplores.
Over the past decade, India has faced criticism from international watchdogs over the erosion of press freedom, the use of state institutions against political opponents and the growing vulnerability of minorities.
European leaders are not unaware of this contradiction. In private conversations, these concerns are acknowledged. In public, they are rarely emphasized. The E.U. has moved sharply rightward in the past two years, and any queasiness at doing deals with autocrats may be lessening, especially when those autocrats represent an alternative to the U.S.
Europe’s embrace of India reflects a move away from a values-led foreign policy toward one increasingly shaped by strategic necessity. For years, the E.U. saw itself as a normative power, projecting democracy, human rights and rule of law as the foundation of its global engagement. That posture is harder to sustain in a world defined by China’s rise, Russia’s aggression and the unpredictability of American politics.
In such a landscape, India is no longer judged primarily as a democracy that must live up to shared ideals. It is evaluated as a partner that can help balance a new global order.
Geopolitics, in other words, is shrinking moral ambition.
Europe needs India as a market, as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific and as part of its effort to reduce dependence on China. Europe finds itself not just hedging against American uncertainty but also competing for relevance in a relationship where Washington often sets the pace.
In that sense, Trump was the ghost at the Republic Day parade in India — not because he was absent but because the uncertainty he represents is already reshaping alliances.
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