Mexico, like its neighbors to the north, has been struggling to keep a resurgence of measles in check. Now, as the virus continues to spread and cases pile up, the country appears to be on the brink of losing a hard-won place among nations that have eliminated the disease.
A panel of independent health experts summoned by the Pan American Health Organization, or P.A.H.O., is expected to convene on April 13 to review data that will be used to decide whether Mexico’s measles-free status — held for three decades — will be revoked.
The timing could not be more urgent. Mexico, Canada and the United States are hosting this year’s FIFA World Cup, with millions of fans expected to arrive in North America this summer.
“We are going to receive visitors who are probably not vaccinated,” Victoria Pando Robles, an infectious-disease researcher at Mexico’s National Institute of Public Health, said in an interview. “And if they go to a stadium, they’re going to find thousands of people susceptible to the disease. And then those numbers become significant. It’s exponential.”
Canada already lost its elimination status last year, and the United States will present its data in April. The majority of confirmed measles cases in the hemisphere, about 94 percent, have been concentrated in those two countries and Mexico, according to Pan American Health Organization data released this month.
Mexico has the highest burden in the region, according to the health organization’s report. The country said on Wednesday that the virus had spread across all 32 states and that confirmed cases since the start of last year had surpassed 9,000. The authorities are also monitoring nearly 4,000 more likely cases. At least 28 people have died of the virus.
“We are confident that the outbreak will be controlled,” President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said at a news conference on Wednesday. The country has 28 million vaccine shots available, “which are sufficient,” she added. “And we have an adequate distribution strategy in place.”
Ms. Sheinbaum told reporters that no extraordinary measures were being considered ahead of the World Cup, except for an intensive vaccination campaign currently underway.
“Most Mexicans are already vaccinated, which is very important,” she said. “If they were not vaccinated, we would have millions of infections, but that has not happened.”
The current outbreak in Mexico began in early 2025, when a 9-year-old boy from a Mennonite community — whose members often live in isolated settlements with limited medical interaction — returned from Texas, where an outbreak was underway, to the Mexican state of Chihuahua, where there is a significant Mennonite presence.
A recent study found that the virus was then contracted by seasonal agricultural workers, who typically travel to different regions of the country, and spread in unvaccinated people before reaching remote Indigenous populations of Mexico.
Several factors are responsible for the rise in measles cases in Mexico, experts say.
Vaccinations against measles have dropped over the past decade, particularly the second dose, and immunity has waned among young adults and children, leaving large segments of the Mexican population unprotected.
“People born after the 1990s don’t know what measles is like and the complications it can cause,” Dr. Pando said. “So they are easing up on vaccinations for their children.”
Others point to historical and recent deficits in Mexico’s public health system. Budget cuts in recent years, severe underspending of the authorized budget for vaccination, a lack of coordination among public institutions and other logistical issues — including late vaccine purchases and a below-average cold-chain storage system, which is needed to keep doses effective — have contributed to the problem, according to a report from the Mexican Association of Vaccinology.
“This is not about a government; it is not about a party,” said Dr. Rodrigo Romero Feregrino, the association’s coordinator. “It has been chronic neglect for several years now.”
Mexico’s Health Ministry declined a request for comment.
To avoid losing its measles-free status, Mexico has to prove that the same virus strain first introduced in Chihuahua has not circulated for more than 12 months, according to protocol. As the April deadline approaches, that is looking increasingly difficult to do.
“In reality, Mexico has already lost its status,” said Malaquías López Cervantes, a clinical epidemiologist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. “All that remains is for the P.A.H.O. to make the bureaucratic declaration. What Mexico must demonstrate is its ability to manage the outbreak we are facing today.”
For José Moya Medina, the Mexico representative for the Pan American Health Organization, the government’s efforts to control the outbreak could prove successful “in a few more months.”
“There is a response at the highest political level,” he said. “It is a priority.”
But even if the country avoids losing its measles-elimination status, addressing any future outbreaks requires fixing a number of issues that extend far beyond vaccination campaigns, experts said.
“We need to start thinking: How are we going to recover it?” Dr. Romero said of the certification. “Not for the status itself, but because we cannot allow deaths or complications to occur from diseases that are preventable.”
Cyntia Barrera Díaz contributed reporting.
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega is a reporter and researcher for The Times based in Mexico City, covering Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
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