Republicans searching for a path out of the political wilderness in New York will place their hopes in Bruce Blakeman on Wednesday, choosing a suburban county executive allied with President Trump as their nominee for governor.
In many ways, Mr. Blakeman, 70, is the party’s ideal blue-state standard-bearer. He has moderate views on abortion and won re-election in Nassau County last November when other Republicans across the country suffered steep losses.
But as the pomp plays out onstage at the party’s three-day convention on Long Island this week, Republican leaders are quietly fretting that backlash to Mr. Trump could undo the party’s recent gains in New York, and swamp Mr. Blakeman before the race really begins.
“Right now, we’re in bad shape,” said Alfonse D’Amato, a former Republican senator from New York, pointing to voter concerns about the economy, among other factors. “If it doesn’t turn around, we’re in trouble.”
Polls show that New York voters are bridling at Mr. Trump’s aggressive deportation strategy and his handling of the economy. And four years after Republicans nearly defeated Gov. Kathy Hochul, confrontations with Mr. Trump have helped push her to an early 25-point lead.
The dynamic already helped persuade two nationally known Republicans — Representatives Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler — to abandon plans to challenge Ms. Hochul, and has chilled big donors. Now it has party strategists worried that concerns over the nation’s direction could also endanger Republicans in crucial House swing seats, including Mr. Lawler’s in the Hudson Valley.
It is a painful reversal for Republicans, who had recently been making inroads in Democratic states like New York and California by appealing to voters wary of one-party rule. As recently as last year, many believed they had a viable shot against Ms. Hochul, whose approval ratings were middling.
Republicans’ best hope now appears to be the calendar. Nine months can be an eternity in politics, and Republicans signaled at this week’s gathering that they would use the time before Election Day to try to wrest voters’ attention back to the familiar New York pain points they typically pin on Democratic leadership.
Speakers at the convention took turns blasting Ms. Hochul for spiking energy costs, high tax rates and the slow exodus of residents moving to other states.
“The Democrats want to nationalize everything,” John J. Faso, a former Republican congressman who lost his seat in the midterm elections during Mr. Trump’s first term, said in an interview.
“Republicans need to focus on what ails New York, because the problems the state has emanate from Albany, not from Washington,” he added.
In 2022, that strategy helped Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for governor, eat into Democrats’ voter registration advantages and come closer to winning the post than any Republican had in two decades.
Mr. Zeldin, who is now Mr. Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency administrator, reprised that approach during a convention speech on Monday.
“She’s not just captain of the Titanic,” he said of his old foe, Ms. Hochul. “She’s actually aiming for the icebergs.”
Mr. Blakeman thanked Mr. Zeldin onstage for providing a “road map.” He was expected to speak at greater length on Wednesday after formally accepting the nomination, alongside his party’s choices for lieutenant governor, attorney general and comptroller.
Four years after Mr. Zeldin’s race, though, beating the Democratic governor promises to be much more difficult. The midterm tide that was against former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is now flowing in the other direction. Crime, the main issue Mr. Zeldin ran on, has dropped across the state, in some cases to record lows. Ms. Hochul is now taking credit.
But perhaps the biggest obstacle to Republicans’ approach is Mr. Trump. He has directly targeted billions of dollars in federal funding earmarked for infrastructure, child care and security initiatives in New York. And he undermined Republicans’ plans to make Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, a political punching bag by making nice with him in a White House meeting.
Those attacks have put pressure on Republican officeholders in New York and, at least temporarily, helped unify Democrats behind Ms. Hochul. (On Tuesday, her Democratic primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, suspended his campaign because he saw “no viable path forward” against her.)
Ms. Hochul used her own nominating convention last week to position herself as a bulwark against the president, reserving only a passing mention for Mr. Blakeman.
“Anyone who dares stand in our way, here’s your warning, whether you’re in Washington or in Nassau County,” Ms. Hochul said in her convention speech. “You don’t want to mess with the badass women of New York.”
Republicans have always faced a more challenging landscape in New York. To win, they must excite the party’s base, win independent voters and stitch together a coalition that spans the suburbs of New York City and rural regions hundreds of miles away.
Party leaders believe Mr. Blakeman, a jocular career politician who favors three-piece suits, is well suited to the task and are pleased that he is not likely to face the kind of messy primary fight that cost Mr. Zeldin time and money.
“He’s in many ways been looking forward to this his whole life,” said Peter T. King, a Nassau Republican and former congressman. “Bruce has an ability to tap into voters that really go into what we used to call the Reagan Democrats.”
After a career in local government, Mr. Blakeman claims both moderate and MAGA credentials.
He is more in favor of abortion rights than many fellow Republicans, coming closer to the position of a majority of New Yorkers. After several failed statewide races, he has won two consecutive contests to lead Nassau County, a diverse jurisdiction just east of New York City where Democrats still outnumber Republicans, at least on paper.
But Mr. Blakeman also calls Mr. Trump, whom he has known since the 1990s, a friend. He pleased conservatives by creating a force of armed volunteers to deploy in the event of civil unrest in Nassau, and by seeking to bar transgender athletes from county facilities.
And as other Republicans have criticized Mr. Trump’s immigration enforcement actions after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis, Mr. Blakeman has dismissed the backlash and enthusiastically defended his own county’s cooperation agreement with the federal government.
“What’s happening in Minneapolis is staged,” he recently told a reporter. “It’s paid professional agitators.”
Mr. Blakeman clearly has work to do within the party. Allies of Ms. Stefanik are still upset at Mr. Blakeman’s last-minute entrance into the race, which obscured her path against Ms. Hochul and helped prompt her to drop out of the race.
Conservatives and upstate Republicans, who had been aligned with the congresswoman, said they were still viewing Mr. Blakeman, whose campaign is being run by the chairman of the Nassau County Republican Party, with skepticism.
“Frankly, there’s no enthusiasm from the base as far as I can see,” said David Buchyn, the chairman of the Upstate Conservative Coalition.
A spokesman for Ms. Stefanik, who has not endorsed Mr. Blakeman, declined to comment. Mr. Blakeman recently said the two have not spoken since she dropped out.
Mr. Blakeman’s path forward did not get any easier after the sheriff he expected to be his running mate abruptly pulled out late Sunday amid criticism by Laura Loomer, a right-wing provocateur.
Gerard Kassar, the statewide Conservative Party chairman, conceded that there could be more enthusiasm for Mr. Blakeman, but said there could also be upsides to the candidate’s deep ties downstate, where most of the competitive congressional races will take place.
“No question in my mind,” he said, “this has made Long Island seats more competitive.”
Nicholas Fandos is a Times reporter covering New York politics and government.
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