Republicans looking to the White House to lead in the face of the party’s dimming prospects for November’s midterms are facing a crucial hang-up: the president.
The party’s flagship campaign committee and super PACs have no indication of how President Donald Trump will deploy his $300 million-plus war chest because the president has not approved a spending plan. Republican donors are funding expensive Senate primaries in Texas and Georgia because Trump has not cleared the field with his endorsement, or, in the case of Louisiana, endorsed a challenger to the incumbent Republican.
People who have spoken with Trump about these obstacles said he at times can sound detached and noncommittal about his plans for spending and endorsements. One person close to the White House said some days the president seems not to care. Having already been impeached twice and indicted four times, Trump is less afraid of being impeached again than he is determined not to let a Democratic-controlled House halt his policy agenda, a White House official said. The official and others spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity to detail private conversations.
But a White House official said Trump is excited to get more engaged in midterm strategy and looking forward to increasing his travel this month, including a campaign-style event outside of Washington this week. An Oval Office meeting to go over a handful of House endorsements Wednesday night turned into a five-hour gabfest on the midterms, according to two people present. Trump said he wants to defy the tendency of the president’s party losing seats in Congress in the midterms, one of the people said.
“We’ll spend whatever it takes,” the person recalled Trump saying. “Go get it done.”
The president’s political team, led by White House adviser James Blair, campaign strategist Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio, met in Palm Beach, Florida, on Friday to review research from every competitive race in both chambers and develop estimates for what Republicans will have to spend to win. The team also briefed a retreat of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm on Saturday.
For much of last year, the White House was an island of optimism. Trump’s team would argue that Republicans were better positioned than at the same point in Trump’s first term, based on data such as the president’s approval rating, the generic ballot and voter registration.
Democrats, however, don’t need a 2018-size blue wave to win the House, where Republicans currently hold the narrowest possible majority and are defending 14 seats rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Democrats are defending four toss-up seats, and Cook shifted 18 seats in their favor in January.
Republicans are anxiously awaiting a clear picture of the Trump team’s plans as the president’s sagging approval ratings and Democratic overperformances in special elections have darkened the GOP’s outlook for November’s midterms. Most Republicans are not ready to criticize Trump in public. But privately, there is rising frustration with an apparent lack of urgency from Trump and his staff, according to people who spoke to The Post.
“Every time I talk to him on the phone, he says, ‘How’s the race going?’ and then he cites polls back to me so I know he’s following it closely,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, noting that Fabrizio is also his pollster and LaCivita is a consultant to the super PAC supporting his reelection.
Still, Trump’s endorsement has eluded Cornyn. “There’s only one person in the world who’s going to make that decision and we can’t wait,” the senator said.
Cornyn’s primary in Texas next month is dominating Republican anxieties on the Senate side since national strategists see his toughest challenger, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, as weaker in the general election, according to a memo from the National Republican Campaign Committee obtained by The Post. Holding the Senate seat for the GOP with Paxton as the nominee would cost an additional $100 million in a state where effective advertising costs $8 million a week, according to people involved in the race.
“Texas cannot be taken for granted,” the memo said, presenting internal polling that puts Cornyn ahead of the Democratic candidates and Paxton behind them. Either Republican would face a competitive general election, the survey showed, with Texas state Rep. James Talarico running stronger than U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett on the Democratic side.
In a presentation to the Republican Senate caucus on Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott of South Carolina said a recent Fox News poll giving Democrats a 6-point advantage in House races would put all nine Senate battlegroundsup for grabs, according to two people present. He also noted that Democratic candidates are raising more money for competitive races such as Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.
Senate Republicans were heartened Feb. 1 when Trump endorsed John E. Sununu in the Republican primary for Senate in New Hampshire, following extensive lobbying by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota). Sununu has criticized Trump in the past but was leading in polls, and national Republicans saw him as the strongest candidate to flip the seat being vacated by a retiring Democrat, Jeanne Shaheen.
But lobbying for Trump to endorse Cornyn has stalled as the incumbent has not established a clear polling lead in a three-way primary with Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — even after allies have poured $50 million into ads supporting Cornyn. Trump treasures his endorsement as definitive in primaries — and it often is, in part because he resists backing underdogs.
Early voting opens on Feb. 17 for the March 3 primary. If no one wins a majority, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on May 26.
Trump renewed hopes that he would wade into the race by telling reporters Feb. 1, “I’m giving it a very serious look.” The day before, a Democrat won a special election in a state Senate district that Trump won by 17 points.
“I’ve had many conversations about why I think that makes the most sense to get behind John Cornyn,” Thune told reporters last week. “I don’t have any inside knowledge of when or what that might look like or when it might happen.”
Trump might clear the field with an endorsement in Georgia to challenge Democrat Jon Ossoff, the person close to the White House said. The Republican primary include Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as former football coach Derek Dooley, who is backed by Gov Brian Kemp. That race, though, is not considered as much a priority for Senate leaders as Texas is.
Senate Republicans including Thune have been frustrated by Trump’s treatment of Senate incumbents, according to two people familiar with the tensions. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina declined to run for reelection in the battleground state after feuding with Trump over Medicaid cuts in the president’s 2025 tax cuts and spending package. Last month, Trump recruited and endorsed a challenger to Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana — which the White House official said was the result of Cassidy’s vote five years ago to convict Trump in the Senate impeachment trial of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
“I do think it’s a real problem when Senate Leadership Fund is on record supporting Cornyn and Cassidy, and President Trump is either silent or in opposition,” Tillis said, referring to the main super PAC supporting Senate Republicans. “We’re literally going to have Republican-on-Republican money being spent and that makes no sense leading up to a general [election] where we’re going to have headwinds.”
On the House side, the White House’s push to protect the House majority using redrawn congressional maps in Texas, North Carolina and Missouri appears poised to net zero seats because of Democratic counteractions in California, Maryland and Virginia. The latter two still face legislative or judicial hurdles.
The White House still expects to pick up Republican seats from a new map in Florida, after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) last month announced a state legislative special session in April. DeSantis said he wanted to wait until then in the hopes of a new Supreme Court ruling that could reshape as many as 19 House districts across the South by further weakening the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Trump has noted that the stakes of the midterms include, for him personally, the likelihood of being investigated or even impeached by a Democratic-controlled House. His first administration uniformly disregarded oversight requests and litigated subpoenas until after his term. Now some advisers expect the administration can stonewall congressional oversight and that Democratic focus on investigating Trump could backfire on them leading up to the 2028 presidential election.
Republicans still hold an overall advantage in fundraising. The House GOP campaign arm, which historically struggles to attract donors in uphill midterms, outraised its Democratic counterpart in 2025. The Democratic National Committee has more debt than cash, while the Republican National Committee has $95 million in the bank.
Trump’s main super PAC, MAGA Inc., finished 2025 with a $304 million stockpile. But the PAC, led by LaCivita and Fabrizio, has been mum with allies about its spending plans. The person close to the White House said the president is likely to approve spending in multiple waves, and may reserve funds to maintain his political kingmaker role in future elections and for legal fees.
“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, MAGA Inc. will have the resources to help candidates who support President Trump’s America First agenda of securing our border, keeping our streets safe, supercharging our economy, and making life more affordable for all Americans,” PAC spokesman Alex Pfeiffer said.
While lawmakers await details on what assistance they can expect from the super PACs, Trump’s team noted it was the largest outside spender in the Dec. 2 special election to retain a House seat in Tennessee.
“President Trump and his team were all in for me. I wouldn’t have won without them,” said Rep. Matt Van Epps, who won by 8.8 points in a district Trump carried by 22 points in 2024. “I know they’ll do the same for the entire America First team in this year’s midterm.”
The White House said it is actively scheduling multiple trips for the president in battleground states and districts in the coming weeks and months that will include local lawmakers. The White House has also encouraged Cabinet secretaries to minimize foreign trips and focus solely on domestic travel this year, encouraging officials to seek guidance on prioritizing key battleground districts. White House officials are also helping to book Cabinet members on local media in target areas.
Since Thanksgiving, Trump has visited the battleground districts of Reps. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pennsylvania) and Don Davis (R-North Carolina), as well as Detroit (home to a Senate and governor’s race) and Iowa (home to a Senate race and two target House races). Vice President JD Vance visited battleground House districts held by Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pennsylvania) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio). Medicare administrator Mehmet Oz visited the districts of Rep. Michael Lawler (R-New York) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pennsylvania).
The White House provided statements from Lawler, North Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley, Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio, Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska and RNC adviser Danielle Alvarez praising Trump and his staff for their support.
“It is only February, and there is time for more, but I’m glad to have very strong support from the President and his administration,” Husted said.
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