It boiled down to a choice between two starkly different visions of Thailand’s future: one dominated by nationalism, respect for the monarchy and defense of the status quo, the other by promises of change and true democracy.
In a surprising outcome that analysts say reflected in part the growing unpredictability in global affairs, it was the nationalist vision that prevailed in Sunday’s election. With 89 percent of the vote counted, Bhumjaithai, the party seen as the standard-bearer for the conservative-royalist establishment, won 194 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives, besting the progressive People’s Party, which came in second with 115 seats, according to unofficial results from the Election Commission.
It was the first time in years that Thai voters backed an establishment party, signaling a shift from the progressive movement that had swept Thailand in recent years and a yearning for continuity at a time of external threats. And it defied campaign polls that had consistently given the People’s Party a slight edge.
The vote was a resounding success for Bhumjaithai, traditionally seen as a regional player and, lately, a “kingmaker” in Thai politics. Its party leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, was the prime minister of a minority government for the past five months. He had called for the snap election to head off a potential no-confidence vote.
Because he does not have an outright majority, Mr. Anutin still needs to form a coalition. But with a majority of the Senate stacked with allies of Bhumjaithai, he is likely to have full control now over both chambers of Parliament.
“We will accept the decision of the people in giving us the confidence, the trust to the Bhumjaithai party,” Mr. Anutin told reporters at his party’s headquarters in Bangkok.
The vote came just months after Thailand and Cambodia went to war over their disputed border, one of the bloodiest such battles in decades. Mr. Anutin capitalized on the conflict to pitch a platform of security. He promised a border wall, pledged to expand a “volunteer military” program and vowed that if Cambodia sends one rocket, “we will send back a hundred.”
Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow with Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said the result reflected concern about the conflict as well as the erratic foreign policy of the United States, Thailand’s ally, under President Trump.
“People’s priorities have shifted from reform to the need for stability,” Ms. Tita said.
The results were a blow to the progressive People’s Party, which was hoping to repeat its predecessor’s success in the 2023 elections. Analysts said the party was weakened by its previous calls for military reform, which Mr. Anutin used to paint the party as unpatriotic.
On Sunday night the party’s leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, said he accepted the results but ruled out forming a coalition with Bhumjaithai and said his party would remain in the opposition.
“Don’t stop believing,” he said. “Don’t lose hope. We’ve come so far.”
The defeat has unleashed a debate over the People’s Party’s decision to move to the center during the campaign, seeking to appear more accommodating to Thailand’s conservative elite, comprising the powerful military, the judiciary and the royal family.
“From a purely ideological standpoint, there has been a brand dilution,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow with the Thailand Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “Its core supporters, primarily the youth, who were inclined to vote for the party on the basis of ideology, are just not as energized this time around.”
Mr. Anutin became premier late last year after receiving the backing of the People’s Party, which had the largest bloc in Parliament. The People’s Party agreed to the deal in exchange for a promise to hold early elections and for a referendum to rewrite the military-drafted Constitution. More than 65 percent voted in favor of the referendum.
“The People’s Party’s decision to support Anutin as prime minister is probably going to be seen in retrospect as a major mistake,” said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, an independent political analyst who writes a newsletter about Thai politics. “They handed him the benefits of incumbency, they allowed him to consolidate the conservative vote and they also damaged their own ideological standing.”
Mr. Anutin said he was not ready to discuss potential coalition partners. But Chaichanok Chidchob, the secretary general of Bhumjaithai, said he would personally like to work with the People’s Party.
“I like a lot of their ideas,” he said in an interview. “But of course, we’ll have conditions. For me, I want them to be clear about their standpoint about the royal family.”
He added: “All this anti-monarchy stuff, it has to stop. We have so many other issues that we need to focus and solve.”
Bhumjaithai draws its support from an old guard of civil servants, military officers and royalists, backstopped by the powerful Chidchob family from the province of Buriram in the northeastern region of the country.
Many voters seemed to have swung behind Mr. Anutin simply because he has shown he can get things done.
Theerayuth Preedeesawat, 47, a Bhumjaithai supporter, said he thinks his life has improved under Mr. Anutin.
“He got things done with the Thai-Cambodia border clashes,” Mr. Theerayuth said, speaking at a Bhumjaithai rally last month in Bangkok. “He’s a man of action. I think Anutin is the best option for the country. He’s faithful to the people, the king and the country.”
Muktita Suhartono and Kittiphum Sringammuang contributed reporting.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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