Millions of Thais are set to vote on Sunday in a pivotal election that could determine whether the country can break the cycle of political instability and economic stagnation that has endured for over a decade.
The source of that instability is a yearslong struggle for power by Thailand’s progressive movement, which has been trying to dislodge the establishment — a nexus of the military, the courts and the monarchy. The hope of progressives was now riding with the People’s Party, which was leading in opinion polls.
Sunday’s snap election was set off by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who was seeking to prevent his minority conservative government from facing a potential no-confidence vote. Voters will pick who gets to sit in the 500-member House of Representatives.
What is the context?
Thai politics have been in a near constant state of crisis since the previous election, in 2023. The party that won that vote, the Move Forward Party, was blocked by the establishment from forming a government, and eventually disbanded.
Those events were a stark reminder that winning an election in Thailand is one thing, but taking office is another. Powerful royalist-military elites have, in recent years, frequently overturned the will of voters. Many observers fear this fate awaits the People’s Party. (Thailand is a constitutional monarchy.)
Since the 2023 vote, two prime ministers have been ousted by the Constitutional Court.
Who are the main players?
For the first time in two decades, the Shinawatra clan is not the front-runner. Its patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra, the country’s former premier and power broker, is in prison after being convicted of corruption and abuse of power. His daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was removed as prime minister by the Constitutional Court last year.
The Pheu Thai party is now led by Mr. Thaksin’s nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat, but has struggled to resonate with the public. And while several opinion surveys show it is polling in third place, the party could also partner in a coalition government.
Mr. Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party represents the old politics of Thailand, where the royalist-military establishment holds sway. He has positioned himself as the protector of traditional institutions and has benefited from a rise in nationalist sentiment following a border conflict with Cambodia last year.
On the other side is the People’s Party, which is led by 38-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. The successor of the now-dissolved Future Forward and Move Forward parties, its main platform is change. It held the largest bloc of seats in Parliament last year but remained in the opposition.
It may be difficult for either party to secure a majority.
What’s different this time?
In 2023, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party, was blocked from becoming premier after 250 military-appointed senators voted against him. This time, senators do not hold veto power as the five-year mechanism that allowed them to pick the prime minister expired in 2024. The Prime Minister will now be elected by the 500 members of the House.
Voters will also cast ballots on a referendum for a new constitution.
The current Constitution was drafted in 2017 by a military-appointed committee following a coup three years earlier. The People’s Party argues that it gives so-called independent agencies such as the Election Commission and the Constitutional Court the power to dissolve parties and remove prime ministers.
Even though the Senate can no longer vote for a premier, it can still block any future laws or constitutional amendments.
A “yes” vote will lead to more referendums on how a new constitution would be drafted but would allow the People’s Party to begin the process of structural reform.
What are the key issues?
Thailand is experiencing its weakest economic growth in decades. This year, the World Bank has projected that Thailand’s economy will only expand by 1.6 percent, the lowest in Southeast Asia.
It is also one of the most unequal societies in the region, according to the World Bank. Some of its citizens are among the most indebted in Asia. Household debt stands at around 90 percent of gross domestic product, compared with about 25 percent for Vietnam.
Tourism revenue, a key driver of the Thai economy, still hovers below prepandemic levels. The country’s export-focused economy also took a hit when the United States imposed a 19 percent tariff on goods from Thailand.
National security is another top concern.
Last year, Thailand and Cambodia fought a bloody war over their disputed border that was one of the worst in decades.
Mr. Anutin has seized on the nationalist sentiment, promising a border wall and expanded military volunteer forces. The People’s Party had to state explicitly that it had never been against the military as an institution.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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