If America’s relationship with China is the most important in the world, it’s also the most unpredictable. Can President Donald Trump prepare for conflict while keeping relations cordial?
Trump transformed Americans’ view of China during his first term by firmly acknowledging China is a competitor that the U.S. must confront and compete with. President Joe Biden largely followed this policy playbook, keeping tariffs on China in place while sounding hawkish notes about Taiwan.
This time around, Trump has looked to ease tensions between the world’s two richest and most powerful countries. That continued this week when Trump spoke by phone with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in what he described as an “excellent” call — “all very positive!”
Trump said they talked about China purchasing oil and gas from the U.S., as well as increasing its commitment to purchase soybeans. They also discussed Iran, Taiwan and Ukraine, according to the president’s readout. He stressed the need to maintain their “extremely good” personal relationship.
U.S. foreign policy exists to maximize prosperity and freedom for Americans, but as a global superpower America has an unmatched ability to help others around the globe. Yet traditional American concerns about human rights and religious freedom apparently went unmentioned in the most recent call.
The pair could meet as many as four times this year, starting in April. Trump remains focused on business and, to a lesser extent, security. Yet his relationship with Xi doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and several traps await the president amid upcoming summits.
The first challenge is stabilizing the relationship without alienating allies. Trump’s America First ethos and preference for big bilateral deals can rankle countries like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. They have prospered under the American nuclear umbrella but increasingly worry about an unreliable America, especially one that might cozy up to a regional bully like Beijing.
Taiwan, though not a formal treaty ally, relies on implicit American support to deter a Chinese invasion. Many in the self-governing island democracy have fretted that Trump could use Taipei as a bargaining chip in talks with Beijing. Yet the president signed off on an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan late last year. The supply of missiles, drones and howitzers is as important as anything Trump could say.
Xi learned last year that his country’s dominance of critical minerals is a uniquely powerful leverage point. Last time, the Chinese used this influence to get Trump to back away from debilitating tariffs. Will he try the same trick on Taiwan policy?
When Trump saw Xi in late October, China agreed to delay by one year its restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals. The U.S. is now embarking on a crash program to shore up the supply of critical materials in supply chains by creating a critical minerals trading bloc with allies to counter China’s stranglehold.
Representatives from dozens of European, Asian and African countries met with top American officials on Wednesday to discuss ensuring a stable supply. That came two days after Trump announced plans to build a strategic stockpile of rare earth elements, called Project Vault, by using $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank and $1.67 billion in private capital.
Trump wants to shrink America’s trade deficit with China, though it’s unclear whether policy decisions in Washington can make that happen — or if it’s even a desirable policy goal. Another issue is that the administration remains undecided about what exactly it wants to sell the Chinese to reduce the deficit.
Last year, Trump announced that he was allowing Nvidia to sell high-end chips to China. Two months later, however, final approvals remain in limbo. The State Department has used a security review to stall the sales. Does the U.S. want to trip up China at the start of the AI race, or focus on running as fast as possible and simply winning on its own?
At the same time, engaging with a communist dictator in pursuit of U.S. interests does not require ignoring American values. Trump said he has asked Xi to release Hong Kong democracy advocate Jimmy Lai, who is wrongfully imprisoned, and he can continue to push for his release as negotiations continue. He can also push for progress on religious freedom and the release of countless other political prisoners.
In this critical year for a critical relationship, the Trump administration won’t win on every issue. Yet there’s no reason to negotiate with itself — by preemptively dropping demands on human rights or backing off support for allies — before talks with Xi and his advisers begin.
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