History suggests that declaring a front-runner in a presidential campaign nearly three years before Election Day is foolhardy to the point of recklessness. In early 2014, after all, Donald Trump would have been nobody’s pick to win anything other than perhaps time-slot ratings champ for “The Apprentice.”
That said, to dismiss the early prominence of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the closest thing the Democratic Party has to a leading candidate for the 2028 nomination, would be equally rash.
In national circles, Newsom is often dismissed as the slick leader of a blue state beset with the curses of homelessness, high costs and overly progressive policies. These perceptions aren’t wrong. But if things bounce Newsom’s way in the next couple of years, they may also be beside the point. Already, in the early days of an undeclared candidacy no one doubts is well underway, much has gone right for the 58-year-old career politician. By positioning himself as the most visible and effective spokesman for the resistance to Trump, Newsom has begun introducing himself to a national audience as a creative, ubiquitous and happy warrior willing to say and do what’s necessary to fight Trump’s excesses.
Measured by early polling and considerable early-cycle buzz, Newsom stands out from the rest of the potential field. Only Kamala Harris, who is lying relatively low and benefits from the name recognition of being a former vice president and presidential nominee, polls similarly to her fellow Californian.
Still, the perception remains, particularly among left-leaning politicos yearning for a fresh face to retake the White House, that Newsom isn’t the one. He is too progressive, for instance in the unabashed environmentalism that puts him on the side of electric vehicle mandates. He is too well-coiffed. (An overwhelmingly laudatory profile of Newsom this week in the New Yorker devotes considerable space to the history of his slicked-back look, down to the type of hair gel he uses.) And he is too much a product of California’s liberal intramural politics, where beating Republicans simply isn’t part of the training, as journalist Matthew Yglesias recently argued.
Yet the very fact that Newsom is a major presence in the national discussion at such an early stage begins to explain why he is such a potent contender. By making him a punching bag for years, conservative outlets like Fox News have done Newsom a favor: Voters know who he is. And though he certainly is a center-left Democrat in the tradition of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, San Franciscans in particular know he isn’t a doctrinaire progressive. In his early days in politics, he was known for advocating for a less permissive approach to homelessness than the city was used to, for example. Briefly an entrepreneur before entering politics, Newsom always has had a pro-business bent, as well as chumminess with business leaders.
There’s no denying Newsom’s perfect teeth, ample hair and tailored appearance. His look may be mockable, but he has a charisma and charm about him that are part of the reason he has never lost an election. He’s also a genuine policy wonk, always with statistics and positions at the ready.
And while it’s true that Newsom hasn’t had to win Republican votes in deeply blue California, he has been cleverly tacking, if not toward the center, to a well-publicized position of promoting dialogue with his political adversaries. The late MAGA activist Charlie Kirk was the first guest on Newsom’s podcast a year ago, a move that earned Newsom progressive ire but showed his willingness to engage.
Newsom can come off as scripted, in part because he combats severe dyslexia by memorizing his lines. Some will be turned off by his affection for his own phrasemaking. In a recent 47-minute podcast interview he professed his desire to engage Trump with an “open hand, not a closed fist” three separate times.
Yet there is upside to this, too. Voters hearing his lines for the first time will be impressed by his old-fashioned insistence on bridging divides. And his message will be difficult to avoid as Newsom enters his final year as governor before becoming a full-time presidential candidate. He has shown an ability to get national attention by turning the tables on Trump. His support for a Democrat-favoring gerrymandering ballot measure in November proved to be an effective counter to Trump’s redistricting efforts. And Newsom has gotten under Trump’s skin with his emulation of the president’s online hectoring. (I particularly enjoy Newsom telling Trump: “THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!”)
Even before finishing his term, Newsom has projected a presidential air internationally, popping up at climate-change talks in Brazil in November and the World Economic Forum in Davos in January. His memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” appears Feb. 24. Whether or not this account of his pre-gubernatorial life achieves the literary levels of Barack Obama’s “Dreams From My Father,” its publishing will give Newsom the opportunity for a book tour. He’s also in high demand from Democratic candidates in the midterm elections.
A presidential campaign needs to stand for something, of course, rather than merely against something. The good news for Newsom is that he has plenty of time to figure out what that something is.
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