Khrystyna Yurchenko worked hard to build a life in the eastern Ukrainian region known as the Donbas, where she poured her energy into the popular dance studio she owns.
But she would give it all up, she said, for lasting peace. Ms. Yurchenko is among a growing number of Ukrainians who say they would hand over the part of the Donbas still controlled by Ukraine to Russia if that would end the war.
This represents a notable shift for a war-weary Ukrainian population. Giving up territory that Russia has been unable to capture has long been considered a red line. But what once seemed impossible now appears less so, as the Kremlin insists that U.S.-backed peace negotiations will advance only if Ukraine agrees to walk away from the Donbas.
“For me, peace is the priority, and if there would definitely be no war after we give away the Donbas, I would be ready to leave,” she said. She would support surrendering the territory, she said, only if Ukraine’s allies offered strong guarantees for the country’s postwar security.
The future of the Donbas is among the thorniest issues as Ukraine, Russia and the United States continue talks in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Wednesday.
Ukraine has spent years fortifying cities in the Donbas, and has lost a huge number of soldiers defending the industrial region. The territory covers parts of several regions, including Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine still holds about 20 percent of Donetsk but has lost all of Luhansk.
For Russia, capturing the Donbas, where Moscow has lost many more soldiers than Ukraine has, could allow it to claim some measure of victory even as it has fallen far short of its goal of subjugating all of Ukraine.
In public statements, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine remains opposed to a unilateral withdrawal from the Donbas. But he has also occasionally hinted at flexibility, saying that both Russia and Ukraine must be prepared to compromise as Ukraine comes under pressure on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
Polling reflects a growing openness to territorial concessions.
In May 2022, two months after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian Army around the capital, Kyiv, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 82 percent of Ukrainians believed that the country should not surrender territory under any circumstances.
In the institute’s most recent survey, published on Monday, 40 percent of respondents said they would support giving up the Donbas in exchange for security guarantees.
The two figures are not directly comparable, because earlier polls did not attach security guarantees to the question about ceding territory. But the finding tracked with other survey data showing a rising acceptance of territorial concessions.
Still, a majority of Ukrainians remain opposed. Many say they are prepared to continue enduring hardships, including Russia’s campaign to knock out the country’s energy infrastructure during a bitterly cold winter.
Relinquishing the Donbas could fracture Ukrainian society, analysts said. It could also recast the legacy of Mr. Zelensky from a heroic leader who defended the state to one who allowed a Russian occupation of Ukrainian-controlled territory where about 190,000 people now live. Many would presumably move to areas still held by Ukraine rather than live under Russian rule, as Ms. Yurchenko, the dance studio owner, said she would.
Mr. Zelensky “listens to his people, and he won’t do it,” said Yevhen Koliada, head of the Relief Coordination Center, which has helped evacuate thousands of residents from frontline areas, including in the Donbas.
Mykhailo Samus, director of the independent New Geopolitics Research Network in Kyiv, noted that Ukrainian law prohibited ceding territory that had not been occupied by military force.
Mr. Zelensky has proposed that Ukrainian and Russian troops pull back an equal distance from the front line in the Donbas to create a demilitarized zone. While such a compromise could theoretically be considered, Mr. Samus said, Mr. Putin is pursuing a military path and vowing to take the region either through force or through negotiations.
For those who say they are willing to give up the Donbas, security guarantees are crucial, analysts said. Many people fear that if Ukraine were to withdraw troops without such guarantees, there would be little to stop Russia from regrouping and using the region to launch new attacks into the open lowlands beyond the fortified Donbas cities.
For Ukrainians, the security assurances must mean “a guarantee that there will be no renewed attack, and that partner countries are responsible for ensuring this,” said Oleh Saakian, a political analyst and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion, a think tank.
Mr. Zelensky has said that Ukraine is ready to sign deals with Europe and the United States on security guarantees. While European nations have vowed to station troops in Ukraine after any cease-fire, it remains unclear whether they would agree to actually fight Russia in defense of Ukraine. In any case, Russia has said it opposes the plan to station Europeans inside Ukraine.
Mr. Saakian cautioned that giving up the Donbas might not be enough to get Russia to abandon the war.
“It is a great illusion that reaching an agreement with Russia on some line of demarcation could lead even to a temporary peace,” he said.
Whatever happens, Ms. Yurchenko said that peace was the primary objective. However, she, too, said she worried that even a major territorial concession would not be enough to ensure that Russia would not attack again.
“If Ukraine were to give away the Donbas, we would have to move and build our lives from scratch,” she said. “It would be a difficult but worthwhile sacrifice to end the war.”
“But who can guarantee that I would not have to do it again?”
Nataliia Novosolova contributed reporting.
Maria Varenikova covers Ukraine and its war with Russia.
The post For Peace, More Ukrainians Consider the Once Unthinkable: Surrendering Land appeared first on New York Times.
